7.3 Intraday Market Review + Practical Strategy (Gold + BTC/ETH)

Market Storyline

In the first half of the week, the market was still mired in the hawkish shadow of the Fed, with the U.S. dollar continuing to strengthen, gold and crypto assets under synchronized pressure, and many people cutting losses at lows and shorting at highs, convinced that rate hike expectations would continue to suppress the market. On Thursday evening, the nonfarm payrolls data surprised to the downside, with new jobs only half of expectations, coupled with downward revisions to the previous two months' data, the market instantly overturned rate hike bets. U.S. Treasury yields plunged, the dollar weakened, and long-term funds that had been dormant for a long time entered the market collectively. Gold surged over 100 points, and BTC and ETH rebounded violently, causing billions of short positions to be liquidated overnight.

Today is Friday, with funds reducing positions ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, the market lacks the unilateral surge intensity seen overnight and enters a tug-of-war recovery phase. The overnight bullish catalysts have been fully digested. Short-term sentiment is strong, but there is heavy overhead selling pressure, so a direct continuation of unilateral gains is unlikely. The overall trend is a volatile script of an initial rise followed by a pullback and consolidation. Focus on short-term trading, not suitable for heavy positions chasing a unilateral trend.

Gold (Spot) Analysis

Logic

The cooling of nonfarm payrolls has significantly reduced short-term rate hike expectations, lowering the carrying cost of non-yielding gold, laying the foundation for a short-term rebound. However, inflationary pressures have not completely dissipated, and the Fed retains room for tightening in the medium to long term. The large-scale bearish structure has not been completely reversed; the current move is just an oversold bounce, not a trend reversal. Combined with pre-holiday risk-off position closures, upside space is compressed, and the focus is on range-bound volatility.

Key Technical Levels

Support: 4100, 4060 (5/10-day moving average support, core long zone on pullback)
Resistance: 4144 (overnight high), 4160 (20-day moving average strong resistance, breakout required to open upside room)

Intraday Practical Strategy

1. Cautious Long: Buy on pullback to 4100-4110 in batches, stop loss 4085, target 4140-4160, if holding above 4160, look for 4190.

2. Short-term Short: If 4140-4150 resistance holds, try light short, stop loss 4165, target 4110-4100.

3. Risk Control: Do not chase highs on the long side. Pre-holiday volatility is erratic. Control single trade position size; do not hold losing trades.

BTC Bitcoin Analysis

Logic

The nonfarm payrolls positive surprise boosted risk appetite. BTC rebounded from the low of around 58000 to above 61000, a short-term oversold bounce recovery. However, spot ETFs continue to see fund outflows, institutional buying is cautious, volume has not increased correspondingly, and the rebound lacks sustainability. The daily moving average bearish structure still weighs, so this is only a short-term repair, with the risk of a secondary bottom test at any time.

Key Technical Levels

Support: 60500, 60000 (key psychological level; a break below invalidates the rebound logic)
Resistance: 62200, 63500 (medium-term strong resistance; a hold above confirms rebound continuation)

Intraday Practical Strategy

1. Long on Dips: Buy on pullback to 60500-61000, stop loss below 60000, target 62000-62500.

2. Short on Resistance: If 62200 fails to break upwards, light short, stop loss 62600, target 61200-60800.

3. Risk Control: In range-bound markets, avoid heavy positions. The 60000 mark is a bulls/bears watershed; if lost, close all long positions.

ETH Ethereum Analysis

Logic

The current rebound strength far exceeds that of BTC, with funds rotating into second-tier coins. However, weekly candles have been consecutively bearish, the medium-to-long-term bearish structure remains unchanged. The rebound is only short-term speculative capital, with heavy overhead resistance from trapped positions. Any surge is likely to reverse and form a downward continuation pattern.

Key Technical Levels

Support: 1670, 1630 (intraday volatility center)
Resistance: 1720, 1780 (strong selling zone)

Intraday Practical Strategy

1. Buy on pullback to 1670-1685, stop loss 1650, target 1720-1735.

2. Short at 1720 if resistance holds, stop loss 1740, target 1680-1660.

Overall Summary

The overnight nonfarm payrolls data was the core catalyst for this rebound, but ahead of today's holiday, funds are leaving the market, turning the trend from unilateral to a range-bound recovery. The bulls hold a short-term advantage, but layered overhead resistance limits upside. Operationally, give up chasing gains. Wait for pullbacks to support to go long, and enter light short positions at high resistance levels with strict stops. Weekend positions carry higher risk; try to reduce positions by evening to avoid holiday market volatility.

Risk Warning: The above content is for market logic reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Precious metals and cryptocurrencies have extremely high volatility risk. Entering the market requires self-managing positions and risks.