📊 ETH/USDT: Bounce or Reversal? Waiting for Confirmation

This bounce from $1620 was strong, a +6.13% increase looks very encouraging. However, in my opinion, this is still a bounce, not a reversal. For a true bullish reversal, I need to see price stabilization above $1847. Until then, I consider this a correction, not a trend change.

Why do I say that? A few details prevent me from hastily predicting a bullish market reversal:

First, look at the position of the moving averages. EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 have indeed been broken, indicating short-term bullish dominance, and that's true. However, EMA60 is at $1847, and EMA200 is even higher at $2270 — the long-term moving averages are still significantly higher. The gap between the price and EMA60 is more than $120; until this gap is closed, the trend will remain bearish.

Second, the indicators give an impression of "too fast movement." RSI(6) reached 69.86, almost in the overbought zone. The J value of KDJ is even more extreme, soaring to 105; I have seen this extreme value too often. Chasing the high in the short term has very low profitability. It is very likely that there will be some consolidation or correction before the upward trend continues.

Third, the MACD is somewhat contradictory. DIF at 48.64 is still below DEA at 66.26, strictly speaking, it is still in a "death cross" state, indicating that medium-term momentum has not fully turned bullish. Although the histogram is shrinking, a true golden cross is needed for confirmation.

My Trading Strategy:

I will not chase the price upward. In the short term, the first resistance is $1736, and the second is $1824 (Bollinger upper band). If the price corrects to the $1680-$1700 range and does not break the Bollinger middle support at $1670, I will consider opening a small long position with a stop loss below $1660.

First target: $1824. If the price breaks this level with sufficient volume, the next target is $1847. However, I will not add to the position above $1847; instead, I will observe, because a true breakout indicates a potential trend reversal, while a false breakout followed by a correction means I will continue to watch.

For short positions, watch the $1820–$1840 range. Set a stop loss above $1860 with a target around $1700.

Risk Warning:

The trading volume today is not particularly large. In such volume conditions, sharp ups and downs are normal. Position management is more important than determining the direction. Do not rush to open a full position just because of one bullish candle, and do not panic and sell at a loss due to a correction.

In summary:

I see a continuation of the bounce, but not a reversal. My threshold level is $1847; I will consider buying if it is broken. Below this level, there are short-term opportunities, but with large positions, I would rather miss the opportunity than chase highs.

The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research.