#非农爆冷打压加息预期 1. The non-farm payroll data of 57,000 is shocking — the macro landscape has just changed. June non-farm payrolls were only 57.7K, almost half of the consensus expectation of 113.5K. This is the weakest non-farm reading since the beginning of 2025.

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The April and May non-farm reports were revised down by a combined 74K in the process. Although the unemployment rate only rose slightly to 4.2%, a stunning 832K people completely exited the labor force. The market reacted immediately, significantly lowering the probability of a July rate hike from 43% to below 20%, and causing the Dollar Index (DXY) to fall nearly 40 points.
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This is the major macroeconomic headwind that has been plaguing the crypto market since May, and now it has been significantly alleviated with just one morning of labor data.
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This is the second dovish signal from the Federal Reserve. The first came from Chairman Warsh's remarks at the ECB Sintra meeting last Tuesday about inflation risks significantly decreasing, which more profoundly reinforced the shift in the macro landscape than the start of the bear market in February last year. 3. BTC is reported at $61,506, ETH at $1,698 — Q3 looks different from Q2. Bitcoin rose 1.7%, Ethereum rose 4.7%, and the non-farm relief effect is spreading across the market. Ethereum's stronger performance stems from a larger short squeeze triggered by extreme short positioning after its recent poor performance.