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After three consecutive quarters of decline, ethereum:native’s recent surge is interesting, and not just because of the NFP miss.
The most dramatic thing happened on-chain: a whale named sat0shi777, who had previously held a short position of nearly $90 million in ETH, was just about $16 away from liquidation last night—right on the edge. Then ETH rallied, and within half an hour, 31.6k ETH were forcibly liquidated, worth about $53.5 million, resulting in a loss of over $4.5 million.
But it didn’t end there. His remaining short position of about $38 million has a liquidation price around $1,764. ETH is currently at $1,707, leaving only about $57 of buffer. This short position is still hanging there. If the market pushes a little further, another round of forced liquidations will follow. This kind of live mine affects direction—buyers have an incentive to push the price to $1,764.
On the fundamental side, there is some noise too. Tom Lee said the ETH/BTC ratio has reason to strengthen in the second half of the year. A Dragonfly partner explicitly stated a bullish view on ETH and SOL. These statements themselves are not entry signals, but they show institutional narratives shifting. After three consecutive quarters of decline, ETH’s sunk cost narrative has turned into oversold recovery potential.
That said, there are concerns. Three consecutive quarters of decline are not accidental. During this period, ETH hasn’t really told a new story at the application layer. L2 fragmentation and competitive chains eating into the ecosystem mean the fundamental pressure hasn’t disappeared. The trigger for this bounce is macro—NFP + rate cut expectations—not ETH’s own catalyst. So if the rate cut narrative gets discounted by CPI data, the sustainability of this rally will be questionable.
In the short term, the most worth watching is actually the $1,764 liquidation level. If the price can break through, the chain of shorts getting liquidated will push the market further. If it meets resistance around $1,750, beware of a pullback.
DYOR, not investment advice.