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Today's US Stock Recommendation | #Micron: Trump's Shoutout, but Earnings Are the Real Card
Trump has repeatedly praised Micron, because the company put aside $250 million to support Trump Accounts, covering employees' children and Micron's local communities.
This adds a layer of policy buzz around American manufacturing and domestic chips for Micron, but this money is a corporate investment, separate from how much it earns from selling chips.
What truly supports MU is still the earnings report: Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion, up 346% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margin of 84.9%; Q4 guidance further rises to $50 billion, with gross margin around 86%.
AI servers are grabbing HBM and high-end DRAM, and Micron now holds scarce capacity and pricing power.
The company is also changing. In the past, it made memory, with profits swinging wildly with prices; now customers sign long-term agreements early, locking in volumes and prices, making revenue easier to predict than before.
HBM4 is already shipping in volume, and HBM4E is expected to enter mass production in 2027; technology and orders are moving forward.
Risks are also on the table: memory price increases won't last forever, Micron will continue to significantly expand production in fiscal 2027, and once Samsung and SK Hynix's supply catches up, gross margins may decline.
The stock price has more than tripled in half a year, and the market has already priced in many good news.
My view: Micron is worth following long-term, but don't chase it after a big earnings rally. Trump's posts can bring attention, but ultimately what decides the stock price is HBM shipments, memory prices, and the execution of long-term agreements.