Every time the Puell Multiple falls to around 0.5-0.6, it may not pinpoint the exact bottom, but miners do enter a hard-stubborn “hold-the-line” stage—selling pressure gets compressed to the absolute limit. After the halving, daily new supply has already been cut in half; now miners are keeping the market pinned and refusing to sell. If demand on the ETF side stays steady, the supply-demand balance is starting to tip. This isn’t telling you to go all in—just that this phase is worth watching closely.

Bitcoin Miners Continue to Hold Back Distribution as Puell Multiple Revisits Historical Accumulation Zone

The latest reading of the Puell Multiple has declined to around 0.6, placing the indicator back inside a zone that has historically coincided with periods of miner revenue compression. From an on-chain perspective, this reflects that miners are earning significantly less in USD relative to the annual average, reducing the incentive to aggressively distribute newly mined BTC into the market.

Looking across previous cycles, every major drop of the Puell Multiple below 0.5–0.6 has appeared during phases of market stress or prolonged consolidation. While these signals have not identified the exact bottom, they have consistently marked periods where selling pressure from miners became structurally weaker. The current reading follows the same pattern, suggesting that miner-driven supply is becoming increasingly constrained despite recent price weakness.

This dynamic becomes more meaningful when viewed alongside Bitcoin post-halving supply structure. Following the 2024 halving, daily issuance has already been cut in half, meaning any further reduction in miner selling amplifies the ongoing supply contraction. If spot demand remains stable or strengthens through ETF inflows and institutional allocation the market could gradually transition from a distribution-driven environment toward one characterized by tightening available supply.

The Puell Multiple should not be interpreted as a standalone buy signal. Instead, it serves as a valuable macro on-chain indicator that measures the economic condition of Bitcoin miners. At current levels, it indicates that miner capitulation risk is increasing while structural sell-side pressure continues to fade. Historically, these conditions have often developed before stronger medium- to long-term price expansions, making the coming weeks particularly important for confirming whether Bitcoin is entering another supply-driven accumulation phase.