Good morning everyone~

Last night, the market received a relatively important macro data point, the official release of the U.S. June non-farm payrolls data. The data shows that only 57k new non-farm jobs were added in June, far below the market expectation of around 110k. The May data was also revised down to 129k, indicating that the U.S. job market is continuing to cool. Although the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, the main reason is a decline in the labor force participation rate, not a significant improvement in employment. Therefore, overall, this non-farm payroll data is still somewhat bullish for risk assets. The market generally believes that the pressure on the Fed to further raise interest rates in the short term has significantly weakened, and liquidity expectations are starting to tilt towards easing.

On the other hand, the U.S. stock tech sector has experienced a noticeable correction recently. The market has started to reassess the short-term profitability of the AI industry. Some semiconductor and AI concept stocks have faced profit-taking, with institutional funds rotating from high to low. However, in terms of capital flows, the crypto market has instead begun to absorb some safe-haven funds.

Although Bitcoin spot ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of nearly $950 million over the past five trading days, funds quickly reversed in the most recent trading day, with a net inflow of approximately $262 million on a single day, essentially all flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, while Ethereum ETFs continued to see small net outflows. This also indicates that institutional funds currently still prefer Bitcoin, which has the highest certainty and best liquidity, while the wait-and-see sentiment remains strong for Ethereum and most altcoins.

Currently, the continuous return of ETF funds is strengthening the support level for Bitcoin. Against the backdrop of rising expectations for rate cuts and continuous improvement in the policy environment, Bitcoin's overall performance is significantly stronger than that of altcoins. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a structural trend of "BTC strong, altcoins weak," with funds continuing to concentrate on the leading asset. For altcoins to see a broad catch-up rally, they still need to wait for a further recovery in market risk appetite.

Tonight, as U.S. stocks are closed for the Independence Day holiday, overall market volatility is expected to be subdued. Judging from the current trend, the broader market still has the opportunity for a continued rebound in the short term. Therefore, I personally believe that today's contract strategy should still focus on going long on dips. At the same time, continue to monitor whether there is any new news on the U.S.-Iran situation, as geopolitics remains an important variable affecting market sentiment.

Key focus levels today:

BTC upper resistance: around 63000
ETH upper resistance: around 1800
SOL upper resistance: around 85
$BTC ‌$ETH ‌$SOL ‌