Participating in the market is, in essence, a contest between trading and one’s own temperament. Constant fluctuations keep amplifying human impatience and fear: when prices rise, fantasies continue to run higher; when prices fall, worries continue to weaken. Yet we forget that price action itself is always moving forward in a sideways, oscillating manner. As the “big cake” (BTC) moved into the early hours, it carved a deep downward dip, with the lowest touching 57758. It then directly pulled back to below the lower Bollinger Band around 58196, and it began a corrective rebound. Rising all the way, it pushed higher to refresh the intraday high at 61322. It touched above the upper Bollinger Band at 60917, then quickly dropped back and retested support near the middle Bollinger Band at 59556. The current price is 59693, trading tightly along the middle band. Ethereum followed in sync with BTC: the lowest reached 1552, directly breaking below the lower Bollinger Band at 1560. After the bottom stabilized, buyers took over with strong momentum. The high then surged to 1645, breaking significantly above the upper Bollinger Band at 1639. After touching the 1645 peak, it fell back with consecutive bearish candles. It retraced to test support around the middle Bollinger Band at 1599 and is now trading at 1606, tightly along the middle band.

In this round of the rally, the highest surge reached 61322. In the short term, the price sharply broke above the upper Bollinger Band at 60917, forming a typical short-term overbought structure. According to the Bollinger Bands’ mean-reversion behavior, once the price moves away from the band range, there is an inherent demand for a correction back toward the middle band and lower band. After the spike, consecutive bearish candles formed real bodies, and the price rapidly fell from the upper-band range back to near the middle band. The long side’s upside momentum has directly exhausted. The current price 59693 is oscillating close to the middle band at 59556. The middle band has shifted from a previous strong support into the first resistance level for bearish counterattacks. As long as the price cannot regain and hold above the middle band and continue rising, it will open up downside pullback space. On the candlestick chart, a high-level pattern with a long upper shadow formed, showing a surge-and-fall rejection. Then, a series of consecutive bearish adjustment candles arranged one after another, with the highs gradually lowering and forming a stair-step downward structure. The high at 61322 formed a short-term stage top. Each rebound’s strength keeps weakening; rebounds no longer refresh new highs. Bearish candle bodies continue to cover the gains from earlier bullish candles. Overhead selling pressure keeps being released, and bullish follow-through weakens step by step.

Thursday Trading Ideas

BTC: Short near 60200-60500 箜 target 58500

ETH: Short near 1630-1640 箜 target 1500