ETH 15-minute short-term surge of 0.98%: Technical oversold combined with supply tightening triggers rebound.

From 13:45 to 14:00 UTC on July 1, 2026, ETH rapidly rallied in 15 minutes, reaching a high of 1598.0 USDT, with a gain of 0.98% and a volatility of 1.14%. The price reclaimed the level above 1580.0 USDT. This period coincided with the tail end of the Asian trading session and the transition to the European trading session, resulting in relatively low liquidity and increased sensitivity of prices to incremental capital.

The main driver of this short-term anomaly is the oversold rebound demand from technical analysis. The RSI reading is at 34.26, in bearish territory, approaching the oversold threshold of 30. Meanwhile, the price is approaching the key support range of $1,500-$1,600, where there is a cluster demand zone of approximately 1.58 million ETH. Algorithmic buying and value investors began to deploy positions, triggering a technical rebound.

In addition, the supply tightening effect caused by the continuous decline in exchange reserves amplified the price increase. In February 2026, over 31.6 million ETH flowed out of centralized exchanges, with a major exchange's ETH balance dropping to its lowest level since 2020. The reduction in circulating supply amplified the impact of buying demand. On-chain data shows that the number of whale addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH increased significantly near the price low. Large holders buying the dip further pushed up the price. Meanwhile, under the low funding rate environment in the derivatives market, some short sellers took profits at key support levels, and short covering formed a short-term positive feedback loop.

Short-term volatility risks need attention. The current price remains in a long-term downtrend, with the narrowing gap between the 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA potentially forming a death cross. The supply concentration zone at $3,119, accounting for 6.15%, will create selling pressure. On the macro level, uncertainty over Fed monetary policy persists, and capital may continue to rotate from crypto assets to other risk assets. Investors should closely monitor the validity of the $1,500 support level, ETF fund flow changes, and the Glamsterdam upgrade news, and be wary of false breakout risks.