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7.1 Morning Session Analysis Ideas:
Monthly large bearish candle, weekly death cross, daily no solid bottom fractal = standard bearish macro environment
Minor-level divergences, V-reversals, single large bullish candle bounces are highly prone to failure within a strong bearish trend
Common case of divergence after divergence; short-term bounces are just continuation patterns, don't be misled by minor cycle signals
Practical guidelines
1. Major cycle bearish already confirmed: all 15/60/240-minute bottom divergences only count as bounce repairs, do not easily bottom-fish for reversal
2. Short-term bounce resistance levels take priority for short attempts, do not chase longs
3. Only when daily chart forms a solid bottom fractal and weekly chart turns up for repair do minor-level divergences have reversal reference value
Bitcoin + Ethereum general supplement
Bitcoin's major cycle bearish pattern remains unchanged, range bounces are mostly continuation, do not rely solely on hourly divergence for reversal
Ethereum overall weak, 15-minute bounce strength limited
Bull and bear repeatedly battle, highs and lows gradually converge, trading volume declines and contracts, repeatedly touching the upper and lower edges within the range, without a single-sided trend;
Operation characteristics: short-term high selling and low buying within the range, do not bet on direction in advance, wait for the central nervous system formation confirmation.
Central Nervous System Confirmation Signal
After 9 trades are completed, the overlapping range of three 15F line segments stabilizes, the pullback does not break below the lower edge of the central nervous system, the rebound does not break above the upper edge of the central nervous system, and the 1H central nervous system is officially established.
Downward Departure Segment Phase
After the central nervous system is completed, bears exert force, moving downward in a 15F departure segment;
Key observation: the strength of the departure segment, whether a 15F top divergence second sell signal triggers the decline, and whether there is a bottom divergence rebound within the departure segment (secondary rebound is only central nervous system extension, not reversal).