I. Current Price

Ethereum (ETH) extended its weakness today. According to TokenPost data, at 00:07 KST on July 1, ETH was quoted at $1,560.86, down 0.56% in 24 hours.

There is a significant disparity among AI model forecasts: Grok's baseline forecast is $1,730, ChatGPT's baseline forecast is $1,812, with an average of about **$1,780**. The current actual price of **$1,560** is below all AI baseline forecasts, indicating the market is weaker than the models anticipated.

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II. Technical Analysis

1. Trend Structure – Extreme Weakness

ETH is experiencing its first-ever three consecutive quarterly declines: Q4 2025 fell 28.28%, Q1 2026 fell 29.26%, and Q2 2026 fell 25.43%. The cumulative decline since September 2025 is approximately 62%.

The price has fallen to early 2021 levels, putting many long-term holders who have held for over five years into losses. The 200-week moving average has turned downward for the first time, and the double top pattern on the weekly chart has been confirmed. The short-term moving average is near $1,670, the 200-day moving average is at **$2,294**, and the price is well below all major moving averages.

2. Key Levels

Level Support Resistance
First $1,500 - $1,547 $1,620 - $1,650
Second $1,400 $1,700 - $1,753
Strong **$1,200** (after breaking $1,500) $1,800 (medium-term key)

**$1,500** is the most critical lifeline currently. On June 30, ETH traded between $1,547 and $1,612, closing at $1,569. If the daily candle closes below **$1,500**, the next target is directly **$1,200**.

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III. Bullish and Bearish Factors

Bullish Factors:

· Whales are buying the dip: The number of addresses holding 1,000-10,000 ETH increased significantly in June
· Large exchange outflows of ETH: Approximately 500k ETH (worth about $800 million) flowed out of exchanges in a single week in mid-June
· Institutional buying continues: SharpLink Gaming purchased 10,000 ETH on June 30 at an average price of $1,611
· Fear and Greed Index around 13 (extreme fear), historically often a signal of bottom areas

Bearish Factors:

· First-ever three consecutive quarterly declines, extremely weak technicals
· Price far below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, bearish alignment intact
· On-chain active addresses dropped from 795k in early February to about 420k
· The overall market is in a downward channel, with Bitcoin under simultaneous pressure

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IV. Trading Strategies (Based on Current Price of $1,560)

⚠️ Risk Warning: ETH is in a historic downtrend with extreme volatility. The following strategies are for reference only; strict stop-losses should be used.

Strategy 1: Bounce play near $1,500 (High risk)

Logic: $1,500 is the strongest psychological support currently; before it is effectively broken, a short-term oversold bounce can be played.

Item Content
Direction Light long (small position)
Entry $1,520 - $1,550 range
Target First target **$1,620**, second target **$1,650**
Stop Loss Below $1,480 (strict)
Position Very light (1-2%)

Strategy 2: Short on bounces (Following trend, relatively safer)

Logic: In a downward channel, shorting at resistance on bounces is a more reliable trend-following strategy.

Item Content
Direction Short on bounces
Entry Enter when the $1,620 - $1,650 range holds as resistance
Target First target **$1,560**, second target **$1,500**
Stop Loss Above $1,680

Strategy 3: Breakdown short (If $1,500 is lost)

Trigger condition: Daily candle closes below $1,500

Item Content
Direction Short on breakdown
Entry Follow after confirmation of breaking $1,500
Target First target **$1,400**, second target **$1,200**
Stop Loss Above $1,550

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V. Key Reminders

1. **$1,500** is the lifeline: This is ETH's most important support currently. If it is lost, there is significant downside space (to $1,200). Longs and shorts are bound to fight here; waiting for direction to be clear may be the most rational choice.
2. Historic weakness: ETH is experiencing an unprecedented three consecutive quarterly declines. Do not easily "buy the dip"; following the trend is the foremost principle.
3. Watch the ETH/BTC ratio: ETH has consistently underperformed BTC in this cycle. If this ratio stabilizes, it may indicate relative strength for ETH.
4. Thursday's US CPI data will be a key catalyst; the market may remain cautious before the data.

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⚠️ Risk Warning: The above strategies are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. ETH is in a historically weak state; strict stop-loss is the top priority. It is recommended to control position size before the CPI data release and avoid heavy buying on dips.