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💎 Macro Direction: From "When to Cut Rates" to "Whether to Hike," Hawkish Repricing Dominates July's Opening 💎
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On the first trading day of July, the crypto market continued its weak consolidation pattern. Overnight, Bitcoin closed near 58,500, and Ethereum closed near 1,560. The total crypto market cap remains around $2 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance exceeding 57%, showing funds are still concentrating in top-tier assets.
The macro environment is the core variable currently weighing on the market. After the June FOMC meeting, market logic underwent a fundamental shift—investors are no longer discussing "when to cut rates" but are instead assessing whether the Fed might resume rate hikes. The White House signaled respect for the Fed's policy independence, reducing expectations that political forces would prevent a rate hike. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 4.40%, while the 2-year yield stands at 4.127%.
On the regulatory front, July 1 marks the official end of the transition period for the EU's MiCA crypto asset market regulation. USDT has been pushed out of the European market, leaving USDC to dominate the EU compliance track. In the short term, compliance-driven liquidations may bring some selling pressure, but in the long run, a clearer regulatory framework is positive for the industry.
For the crypto market, BTC and ETH are essentially high-beta assets tied to global liquidity and risk appetite. A stronger dollar, rising real interest rates, and slowing ETF inflows all suppress valuations. In the first half of July, watch for the risk of a second dip around the CPI data release on July 14.
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💎 Bitcoin: Down ~19% in June, Facing a Directional Choice in July 💎
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Bitcoin fell about 18.5% in June, its weakest monthly performance since mid-2022. The current price is oscillating around $58,500, near recent lows. Technically, the price has touched the lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart, making this area a key short-term support level for BTC. The RSI is forming lower highs and lower lows, indicating that while the overall structure is bullish, there are short-term bearish reversal signals.
The first resistance above is at $62,450 (20-day EMA); a sustained break above that could target $64,000-$64,100, with the next major supply zone at $66,600-$67,600. Key support below is at $58,000; if lost, further testing of the $52,000-$55,000 range could follow.
On the ETF flow front, yesterday's BTC ETF saw a net inflow of approximately $102 million, but the inflow magnitude is relatively