Track the latest crypto-circle hotspots in real time and seize the best execution opportunities! Today is Wednesday, July 1, 2026. I am Wang Yibo! Good morning to all my crypto friends ☀ Loyal fans check in 👍 Like to get rich 🍗🍗🌹🌹

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💎 Macro outlook update: From “when to cut rates” to “whether to hike,” hawkish repricing leads the way into July 💎
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On the first trading day of July, the crypto market continued to consolidate in a weak pattern. Overnight, Bitcoin closed around 58,500, and Ethereum closed around 1,560. Total crypto market capitalization stayed at about $2 trillion. Bitcoin’s market dominance remained above 57%, and funds are still concentrating on top assets.
The macro front is the core variable currently suppressing the market. After the June policy meeting, the market’s logic changed fundamentally—investors are no longer discussing “when to cut rates,” but have started to assess whether the Federal Reserve will resume rate hikes. The White House released signals showing respect for Walsh’s policy independence, reducing expectations that political forces would block rate hikes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stays around 4.40%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.127%.
On the regulatory side, July 1 is the date when the transition period for the EU’s MiCA crypto-asset market regulation officially ends. USDT is removed from the European market, and USDC monopolizes the EU compliance track. In the short term, compliance clearance could bring some selling pressure, but in the long run, clearer regulatory frameworks are positive for the industry.
For the crypto market, BTC and ETH are essentially high-beta assets reflecting global liquidity and risk appetite. A stronger U.S. dollar, rising real interest rates, and slowing ETF fund inflows will all weigh on valuations. In the first half of July, be alert to the risk of a second pullback around the July 14 CPI data.
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💎 Bitcoin: June fell by about 19%, and July faces a choice of direction 💎
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Bitcoin fell about 18.5% in June, its weakest monthly performance since mid-2022. The current price is oscillating around $58,500, near the recent low area. Technically, the price has touched the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, and the current area is BTC’s key short-term price support level. The RSI indicator has formed lower highs and lower lows, suggesting that although the overall structure is bullish, there are short-term bearish reversal signals.
For resistance, the first level to watch is $62,450 (20-day EMA). If it breaks through consistently, look toward $64,000–$64,100. The main subsequent supply zone is at $66,600–$67,600. Key support on the downside is at the $58,000 level; if it breaks, it may further test the $52,000–$55,000 area.
On the ETF fund flow front, yesterday’s BTC ETF recorded net inflows of about $102 million, but the inflow magnitude has fallen sharply compared to last week. Slowing inflows mean institutional buy-side support is weakening.
In terms of strategy, we are currently in a key support area. Aggressive traders can try a small long position around $58,000–$58,500, with a defense (stop loss) set below $57,500. Targets are in the $60,000–$60,800 range. Conservative traders should wait for the price to gain volume and hold above $60,000 before considering long setups. If it breaks down below $57,500 with volume, you need to leave decisively; watch the $55,000–$56,000 area below.
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💎 Ethereum: Back to early 2021 levels, long-term holders are in losses 💎
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Ethereum has fallen back to early 2021 price levels. Over the past five years, many long-term holders who bought are now in losses. ETH has closed lower for three consecutive quarters, which is unprecedented in history.
Technically, ETH failed to hold above $2,500 and has continued to fall. It is currently in the low range of $1,550–$1,580. AI models predict that on July 1, the average ETH price will be about $1,780. The key support is at $1,650–$1,680, and resistance is at $1,750–$1,800—but the current price is already below these support levels, indicating severe short-term overselling.
The main resistance to focus on is $1,620–$1,650. After a breakout with volume, you can look toward the $1,750–$1,800 area. Support on the downside is at $1,500–$1,520; if that level is lost, it may further test $1,400–$1,450. Yesterday, the ETH ETF saw net inflows of $31.8 million in a single day, and institutional capital continues to enter.
For altcoins, the Altseason Index is at 22 today. Overall, altcoins are weak, and insufficient liquidity may cause declines to continue being larger than BTC’s. The total unlock size for major projects in July is about $1.9 billion. While market liquidity increases, volatility risk will also heat up.
In terms of strategy, aggressive traders can try a small long position around $1,550, with defense set below $1,500, and a target of $1,620–$1,650. Conservative traders should wait until the price stabilizes or a bottoming volume signal appears before setting up. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, so the cost-effectiveness of going long on ETH is temporarily not as good as BTC.
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💎 July’s key variables: CPI and non-farm payrolls will determine the direction 💎
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The non-farm payrolls data on July 2 will directly test the resilience of the U.S. labor market. The CPI data on July 14 will determine whether inflation is truly returning to the target path. If CPI remains hot, long-end U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar may rise in tandem, putting renewed pressure on the crypto market. If inflation data weakens, oil prices keep falling, or the Fed downplays the likelihood of consecutive rate hikes at the July 29 meeting, the market may form a more reliable rebound.
What truly determines the direction of Q3 is not whether there are rate hikes in July, but whether the market can confirm that this round of inflation is only an energy shock, not a more persistent secondary inflation.
July’s baseline scenario: U.S. stocks trade in a wide range with faster internal sector rotation; BTC remains relatively resilient, while ETH and altcoins stay weak. In terms of strategy, before the macro direction becomes clear, strictly control position sizing—keep total positions at no more than 50%, set stop losses on each trade strictly within 2%, and patiently wait for the direction choice after the CPI release and the FOMC meeting.
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