Analysis of AI Memory Market Competition Landscape: Who Will Dominate the Next Growth, Micron, SK Hynix, or Samsung?

In the last week of June 2026, the global semiconductor capital market experienced a period of sharp volatility. This collective restlessness in the capital market was no coincidence. AI is transitioning from the large language model training phase to the Agentic AI era centered on reasoning, fundamentally reshaping the demand structure of the global memory market. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is no longer a subcategory of DRAM but a core strategic asset for AI infrastructure. In late May 2026, TrendForce significantly raised its global memory revenue forecast, increasing the 2026 estimate from $551.6 billion in the previous version to $889.3 billion, and projecting $1.28 trillion for 2027.

Based on the latest financial data, market share changes, and technology roadmap differences of the three leading manufacturers, this analysis breaks down the competitive landscape of the AI Memory market. It also explores investors' allocation paths in this structural market movement, leveraging Gate's newly launched global stock trading service.

Structural Expansion of the AI Memory Market: Data-Driven Growth Logic

Before understanding the competitive landscape of the three giants, it is essential to clarify the core logic driving this round of growth.

The essential difference between Agentic AI and previous-generation AI applications lies in the change in reasoning patterns. Traditional chatbot reasoning requests are one-time computations, whereas Agentic AI reasoning requests are executed in continuous loops. As the context window continues to expand, KV Cache capacity requirements rise in tandem, directly driving rapid growth in HBM and DRAM demand.

TrendForce data provides the most intuitive quantitative reference: Global DRAM revenue is expected to reach $618.7 billion in 2026, up 303% year-over-year; in 2027, it will further grow to $903.3 billion, up 46% year-over-year. The NAND Flash market also benefits from the wave of AI infrastructure investment—capital expenditures by the world’s top nine cloud service providers are expected to grow 79% year-over-year in 2026, with capital intensity rising to 34%. TrendForce expects global NAND Flash revenue to reach $270.6 billion in 2026, an increase of 280.7% year-over-year.

Data from Counterpoint Research further confirms this trend: In the first quarter of 2026, global DRAM market sales grew 80% sequentially and 260% year-over-year. This growth rate is extremely rare in semiconductor industry history.

Against this macro backdrop, the performance and competitive dynamics of the three leading manufacturers show significant divergence.

Three Giants’ Full Performance: Surpassing Expectations and Gaps

Micron: Explosive Revenue Growth, Valuation Reconfiguration Underway

Micron’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 (ending May 28, 2026) earnings report was the focal point of recent market attention. Data shows that the company achieved quarterly revenue of $41.46 billion, up 345.72% year-over-year and 73.75% sequentially; net profit of $33.33 billion, up 1,398.11% year-over-year and 106.26% sequentially; gross margin of 84.56%, an improvement of 10.15 percentage points from the previous quarter.

By business segment, the data center business is the core growth engine. HBM orders remain robust, with segment sales surging from $1.53 billion in the same period last year to $11.5 billion. Cloud memory revenue grew over 300%, reaching $13.77 billion. The company also released its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 guidance, projecting revenue in the range of $49 billion to $51 billion.

The capital market responded extremely positively. After the earnings release, Micron’s market cap surged approximately $100 billion in a single day, reaching $1.3 trillion. The market priced this level of revenue growth with a valuation reconfiguration.

SK Hynix: HBM Leader’s Profit Leverage

Among the three, SK Hynix holds the highest HBM market share. In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported revenue of 52.58 trillion Korean won and operating profit of 37.61 trillion Korean won, with an operating margin as high as 72%, both setting quarterly records.

Entering the second quarter, market expectations have risen further. Analysts generally expect SK Hynix’s Q2 operating profit to fall in the range of 60 trillion to 70 trillion Korean won. Some securities firms, such as Kiwoom Securities, have raised their forecasts to 70 trillion Korean won. DRAM and NAND contract prices are expected to rise another 50% to 70% sequentially.

Company management pointed out that the structural memory shortage brought by AI infrastructure will last at least three years. This judgment corroborates TrendForce’s forecast that the supply gap will persist through 2028.

SK Hynix’s stock performance has also been strong. The cumulative increase this year exceeds 300%, and its market cap briefly surpassed $1 trillion at the end of May, making it the second Asian chip company after Samsung Electronics to join the “trillion-dollar club.”

Samsung Electronics: Leading in Scale but Facing Short-Term Revision Pressure

Samsung Electronics still holds a leading position in scale across the overall DRAM and NAND markets. In the first quarter of 2026, the DS (Semiconductor) division reported consolidated revenue of 81.7 trillion Korean won and operating profit of 53.7 trillion Korean won. Counterpoint data shows Samsung held a 38% share of the global DRAM market in Q1, ranking first.

However, short-term performance faces downward revision pressure. On June 29, Kiwoom Securities lowered its Q2 operating profit forecast for Samsung Electronics from 100 trillion Korean won to 89 trillion Korean won, with expected revenue of 183 trillion Korean won. The reason for the downgrade is not deterioration in the semiconductor business itself—price increases for general DRAM and NAND even slightly exceeded expectations—but rather a larger-than-expected reserve for performance bonuses.

Analysts point out that this downgrade is more a matter of expense recognition timing than fundamental deterioration, and its impact on the stock price is expected to be limited. Samsung leads among the three in HBM4 verification progress, expected to complete verification in Q2 before starting mass production. In the second half of the year, the momentum from HBM4 and enterprise SSD market share expansion will coexist with concerns over rising market share of Chinese memory manufacturers, potentially increasing stock price volatility.

HBM Market Share Battle: From “Single Dominance” to “Three-Pronged”

HBM is currently the most profitable and fastest-growing segment in the AI Memory market, and the most fiercely contested battlefield among the three giants.

Q1 2026 Landscape: SK Hynix Leads, Samsung and Micron Tie for Second

According to data released by Counterpoint Research on June 25, 2026, the global HBM market share by revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was: SK Hynix 58%, Samsung Electronics 21%, Micron 21%.

This landscape represents a significant shift from the same period in 2025. In Q1 2025, SK Hynix’s HBM market share was as high as 69%. The decline from 69% to 58% does not mean SK Hynix lost orders; rather, it reflects the rapid ramp-up in capacity and shipments of Samsung and Micron in the HBM space—this is a normal stage of the market evolving from “single dominance” to “three-pronged.”

Supply Side: All 2026 Capacity Sold Out

The core contradiction in the HBM market is that supply far lags demand. All HBM capacity from the three suppliers for 2026 has been locked in by customers. SK Hynix’s 2026 HBM capacity is essentially fully booked by clients, and the market has fully entered a “seller’s market.” Micron’s entire 2026 HBM supply has been sold out under fixed-price contracts. Samsung plans to increase its HBM capacity by 50% in 2026, targeting 250k wafers per month—as of the end of 2025, Samsung’s monthly HBM capacity (170k wafers) had already exceeded SK Hynix’s (160k wafers).

HBM4 Era: Samsung Leads in Verification, SK Hynix Dominates Share

In its latest report from June 2026, TrendForce noted significant divergence in the verification progress of the three HBM4 original manufacturers. Samsung is leading in HBM4 verification; its process upgrade has resolved heating issues and improved efficiency. Although SK Hynix needs to resample, thanks to its existing partnership with NVIDIA, it is still expected to maintain the largest shipment share. Micron, constrained by its technology architecture, is relatively slower in verification progress.

As the largest single buyer of HBM, NVIDIA’s procurement strategy directly determines the share ceiling for the three suppliers. Due to ongoing tight memory capacity, NVIDIA adopts a strategy of using all three suppliers to ensure supply chain security. In the HBM4 supply allocation for the Vera Rubin platform, SK Hynix takes approximately 60% to 70% share, Samsung around 25% to 30%, and Micron supplies the remainder.

Overall, TrendForce expects SK Hynix to maintain an HBM market share of around 50% for full-year 2026, Samsung around 28%, and Micron around 22%.

Investment Logic and Trading Path: How Gate Platform Participates in the Global AI Memory Market

Crypto Market Mirroring: Spillover Effects of the AI Narrative

As of June 30, 2026, Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range around $60,000, with intraday quotes roughly between $60,045 and $60,367. Ethereum remains in the $1,600 range. The total cryptocurrency market cap stands at approximately $2.09 trillion. After a sustained pullback since June, the short-term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but the global regulatory framework is accelerating, and institutional allocation demand continues to accumulate.

The explosive growth in AI chip and memory demand is transmitting to the crypto asset space through multiple channels. From the expansion of capital expenditure in AI infrastructure construction to the increased demand for energy and network bandwidth from high-performance computing, the linkage between the AI narrative and the crypto market is strengthening. As a multi-asset allocation platform connecting crypto assets and traditional finance, Gate provides users with a unique entry point to participate in both fields simultaneously.

Gate Stock Trading: Directly Configure AI Memory Leaders with USDT

On June 1, 2026, Gate officially launched its real stock trading service, becoming one of the first exchanges in the industry to directly integrate the US stock market within a crypto platform. Users do not need to exchange currency, make cross-border remittances, or open additional brokerage accounts. They simply use the USDT liquidity in their Gate account to buy real stocks listed on major US exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq with one click.

As of June 2026, Gate’s stock trading service covers three core markets: US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and Korean stocks, supporting over 10k US stocks and ETFs, more than 1,500 Hong Kong stocks, and over 1,000 Korean stocks, collectively covering over 12,500 stocks and ETF assets globally. Specifically for the AI Memory industry chain, users can directly trade the following core targets on the Gate platform:

• Micron Technology (MU): Listed on Nasdaq, latest quarterly revenue of $41.46 billion, HBM orders remain robust
• SK Hynix (000660.KS): Listed on KOSPI, HBM market share 58%, Q2 profit expected at 60-70 trillion Korean won
• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS): Listed on KOSPI, global DRAM share 38%, HBM4 verification leading
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Listed on Nasdaq, largest single buyer of HBM, Rubin platform driving HBM demand

The core advantages of Gate stock trading are reflected in three dimensions: extremely low barrier for fractional shares, with a minimum purchase of 0.01 shares; direct settlement in USDT; all stock trades are executed by Alpaca, a compliant broker-dealer licensed in the US, with assets independently custodied through the DTC system.

Conclusion

The AI Memory market is in the early stages of structural expansion. TrendForce’s upward revision of global memory revenue to $889.3 billion in 2026 and $1.28 trillion in 2027 outlines a steep growth curve. In this process, SK Hynix, leveraging its first-mover advantage in HBM and deep ties with NVIDIA, currently holds the leading share; Samsung, relying on its DRAM and NAND scale foundation and HBM4 verification progress, has the potential to catch up; Micron has attracted global capital attention with its astonishing revenue growth and valuation reconfiguration.

The competitive landscape among the three manufacturers is not a zero-sum game—against the backdrop of overall market expansion measured in hundreds of percent, each faces its own growth opportunities and challenges. For investors, the structural movement in AI Memory offers allocation opportunities spanning crypto assets and traditional finance. Gate’s ability to directly trade more than 12,500 global stock assets using USDT provides an infrastructure-level solution for this allocation need.

On the risk side, several dimensions need attention: If the pace of AI capital expenditures falls short of expectations, it could trigger a demand-side correction; if HBM capacity expands rapidly and leads to oversupply, pricing power and profit margins could compress; geopolitical factors may cause potential disruptions to the semiconductor supply chain in South Korea and Taiwan; and the memory price cycle may face mean reversion pressure after 2027. These factors constitute uncertainty variables beyond current optimistic expectations and should be fully considered in investment decisions.

FAQ

Q1: What is the core difference between HBM and traditional DRAM? Why does AI need HBM?

HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) uses 3D stacking technology to vertically integrate multiple DRAM chips, providing far higher bandwidth and energy efficiency than traditional DRAM. AI large model training and reasoning require frequent exchange of massive data between GPU and memory; traditional DRAM bandwidth has become a computational bottleneck. HBM’s high bandwidth makes it the standard memory for AI accelerators. TrendForce expects that HBM capacity expansion will crowd out traditional DRAM wafer capacity, further strengthening suppliers’ pricing power.

Q2: Among the three manufacturers, which has the strongest competitive advantage in HBM?

Currently, SK Hynix leads with a 58% HBM market share, its core advantage being its long-term partnership with NVIDIA and mass production experience. Samsung leads in HBM4 verification progress and has the world’s largest DRAM capacity base (38% market share). Micron has the most astonishing revenue growth (revenue +345.72% YoY), but its HBM verification progress is relatively slower. Each has its own strengths, and the competitive landscape is still dynamically evolving.

Q3: How can I trade US and Korean stocks on Gate? Do I need an additional account?

Gate officially launched its real stock trading service on June 1, 2026. Users do not need to open an additional brokerage account; they can trade directly using the USDT in their Gate account. The platform covers three markets: US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and Korean stocks, with a total of over 12,500 stocks and ETF assets. Stock trades are executed by Alpaca, a compliant broker-dealer licensed in the US, with assets independently custodied through the DTC system.

Q4: How long is the current upcycle in the memory market expected to last?

Institutions are converging on this assessment. SK Hynix’s management points out that the structural memory shortage brought by AI infrastructure will last at least three years. JPMorgan has raised its HBM market size forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 17% to 21%, expecting the supply-demand gap to persist through the entire 2028. HSBC compares the current cycle to the semiconductor supercycle of 1990 to 1995. However, it should be noted that the alignment of capacity release and demand growth after 2027 will be a key variable.

Q5: What are the investment risks in the AI Memory sector?

Key risks include: If AI capital expenditures fall short of expectations, HBM demand would be directly impacted; if HBM capacity expands rapidly and leads to temporary oversupply, product premiums will compress; the memory price cycle may face mean reversion after 2027; geopolitical factors may cause potential disruptions to South Korea’s semiconductor supply chain; and the rising market share of Chinese memory manufacturers (such as ChangXin Memory Technologies) in the mid-to-low-end market may have marginal effects on the overall pricing system.