Market ScenarioPrice Target RangeCore Drivers & Source CatalystsBearish / Bottom$42,000 – $55,000Market participants on prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket see a 76% probability of BTC dropping to $50,000 before hitting $100,000. Top Chinese miner Jiang Zhuoer models a cycle bottom around $42,000–$44,000 by Q4 2026.

KALSHI-9.24%
BTC-1.02%
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