6.29 Monday midday market analysis.

From the daily and 4-hour structure, ETH is still running in a clear weak channel; the trend has not changed, and the short structure still dominates.
After the weekend rebound to the 1610 area, it quickly fell back to oscillate around 1560-1580. This segment is essentially not a bottom, but a typical continuation pattern of the downtrend—recovery bounce + liquidity redistribution.
Many people easily misjudge here, thinking that the market has stabilized, but from the structure, the rebound cannot sustain, which itself indicates that the trend has not changed.
As long as the repair is over, the market is likely to return to the original downward rhythm and continue to test the liquidity zone downwards.
From a larger cycle, the current broader market is still in a consolidation phase, with small volatility, but the overall rebound momentum continues to weaken, and market sentiment remains cautious.
This week's core thinking remains: weak consolidation operation, waiting for a true bottoming structure to appear, rather than bottom fishing in advance.
In terms of news, focus on the evolution of the US-Iran situation this week.
Although the previous agreement has been phased in, there may still be reversals; market risk aversion has increased significantly with news fluctuations, and uncertainty remains high.
There are also two key time points this week:
Wednesday: Multiple central bank governors speak together; the market will focus on whether new monetary policy signals are released.
Thursday: The US non-farm payroll data will be released, directly affecting market judgments on liquidity expectations.
From the capital side, crypto ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows of about $1.9 billion in the last 5 days, indicating that institutions are still continuously reducing risk exposure, and the overall defensive stance has not changed.
BTC trading suggestion: Short near 60200, add position at 60800, stop loss 61500, take profit 59400-58600.
ETH trading suggestion: Short near 1590, add position at 1620, stop loss 1650, take profit 1565-1530.