Regarding MSTR, I saw a viewpoint today:

In the last bear market, it dropped from 130 to 14, a decline of 90%. If we mechanically extrapolate, from this cycle's high of 540, going into position below 60, and increasing position below 50.
I don't think we can simply apply this pattern.
The last MSTR crash was essentially the superposition of three factors:
• BTC dropped from $69k to $15k
• The Fed's aggressive rate hikes led to a repricing of all risk assets
• The market significantly amplified MicroStrategy's leverage risk
But the biggest variable this cycle is:
MSTR is no longer the MSTR of 2022.
Its BTC holdings scale, financing ability, capital market recognition, and BTC Proxy attribute have all changed.
What is BTC Proxy?
Simply put, it means the market treats MSTR as an investment vehicle with leverage, financing capability, and the ability to continuously buy BTC, not just as a software company.
In plain terms — a proxy stock
Therefore, its price does not merely follow BTC; it also includes a premium derived from its capital operation capabilities.
So what's truly worth observing is not:
"Will it drop another 90%?"
But rather:
Whether the market will continue to apply the same valuation logic to MSTR.
I will focus on one metric:
👉 mNAV (Market Net Asset Value)
It can be understood as:
MSTR market cap ÷ market value of BTC held
mNAV > 1: The market is willing to pay a premium, recognizing its BTC Proxy (proxy stock) and financing capability.
mNAV ≈ 1: The market basically values it as a shell that holds BTC.
mNAV < 1: Means the market is beginning to question its business model, financing capability, or future appreciation potential.
So, rather than discussing whether $60 is a buying point,
I am more concerned about:
How long can MSTR's BTC Proxy premium persist?
If this premium still exists, the reference value of historical declines will become smaller.
If the premium begins to disappear, even dropping to $60 may not necessarily be a bargain.