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Regarding MSTR, I saw a viewpoint today:
In the last bear market, it dropped from 130 to 14, a decline of 90%. If we mechanically extrapolate, from this cycle's high of 540, going into position below 60, and increasing position below 50.
I don't think we can simply apply this pattern.
The last MSTR crash was essentially the superposition of three factors:
• BTC dropped from $69k to $15k
• The Fed's aggressive rate hikes led to a repricing of all risk assets
• The market significantly amplified MicroStrategy's leverage risk
But the biggest variable this cycle is:
MSTR is no longer the MSTR of 2
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MSTR+16.35%
BTC+1.10%
A couple of days ago I sold Put TQ (triple leveraged Nasdaq 100), now earning 93%, what exactly is the operation?
1/ Many people see me showing a 93.8% options return and ask: The market has gone up, why does your short position "Put" make so much profit?
Actually, the logic of options sellers is the opposite: sell high first, buy back low, and profit from the difference.
2/ To give a simple analogy:
A few days ago, when TQ was at a low point, selling puts was like creating a "big drop insurance" out of thin air, selling it at a high price to fearful buyers, collecting a $100 premium.
Recently
In Huang Renxun’s conversation with Marvell, his main point in one sentence was: “If copper cables can be used, use copper cables as much as possible; if fiber optics are required, then use fiber optics.”
So today, optical modules rebounded sharply and surged higher, including lite, cohr, aaoi, and others.
As for copper cables, I looked into it and found that Credo is a leader in this area.
Build some positions.
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ARM architecture, it’s expected to surge significantly tonight (it has already started), ARM has risen over 12%, which is good news for ARM architecture and bad news for x86 architecture (before the market opened, AMD and Intel had already fallen), they are opposites.
If you’re trading tech stocks, try to carefully study technical analysis documents and take advantage of hot money inflows;
I was planning to buy tonight after the market opened, but I just discovered a very good method today, which is to use hyperliquid, without waiting for China’s evening market open.
Just now I jumped in
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ARM+3.80%
AMD+2.79%
INTC+3.46%
HYPE+3.12%
Reflective Essay — I Know Why I Didn’t Make Money from Hynix
Today afternoon, I studied Hynix’s past and present thoroughly, no longer shallowly saying it’s just a “storage block” or similar, but personally digging deep.
I realized that in 2023, the year of the company's biggest losses in history, it instead increased R&D investment against the trend and abandoned its main revenue source to shift toward high-end server DRAM. This decision, made during a period when analysts criticized it and the company was under high pressure, allowed it to be the first to realize significant commercial r
I really wish "this time is different," because that phrase is too costly 🥹
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A transaction I made before leaving the job just recently came to mind. Although the amount wasn't large, it was a windfall nonetheless.
Recently, I studied indices from various countries (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, Europe) and different categories of ETFs (storage, semiconductors, nuclear energy, etc.), and discovered the underlying logic behind them.
Following an industry chain to segment investments makes investing very simple and highly certain. And such research is also very interesting and highly rewarding. I will gradually write about these findings later.
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Recently tested three times, all of the good trades were made by waiting for the limit-up and then shorting for profit
From $RAVE , US stocks $CAR, to $BSB
, all are monsters that surged continuously before, then dropped over 90% within a day
Continuing to summarize the common points of these targets, although shorting only yields at most 100%, and doesn't create a huge wealth effect, the current market shows it to be a highly certain choice. (Or it might be just luck)
RAVE-1.47%
BSB+2.75%
Last night @Ccweb3hub told me that @Aster_DEX was listed on $CAR , although I didn't know what kind of stock it was at the time, but it really looked like a few days ago's ethereum:0x17205fab260a7a6383a81452ce6315a39370db97; I checked and found that the institution secretly bought 22% of the shares, the dog whales hold 50+, and the institution has shorted 100% of the shares in the market, so I immediately shorted on Aster. Crazy coins and crazy stocks are really fierce.
Aster trading link:
ASTER-0.60%
BTC has broken above the 120-day moving average, and the fee rate has turned from negative to positive, with more people going long.
Usually, this W-shaped bottom is almost always a bottom pattern in a bear market, followed by a dip back down.
If it hasn't broken below yet, around 77,000 USD, then it's basically confirmed that an upward trend is coming.
MicroStrategy has been aggressively buying BTC recently, purchasing $2.5 billion last week.
Currently, its total Bitcoin holdings have surpassed BlackRock, making it the largest Bitcoin holder, and they plan to keep buying.
This is tr
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BTC+1.10%
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The KOL encountered in Hong Kong!
I found that Xianyu is really a great helper on my self-learning journey in AI, haha. Whenever an app requires a paid membership, I just search for it on Xianyu. (There are definitely downsides to this approach, but I’ll start with it first.)
Recently, to help myself learn U.S. stocks, I wanted to build a knowledge base. I’m clumsy and don’t know how, so I bought a Notion membership on Xianyu, which allows me to use its AI features.
After trying it out for a day, I told it, “Help me build a U.S. stock learning knowledge base with different modules, recording daily small cards,” and within
"Can't Understand These 3 Prices, I Deserve to Be Bought Bottoms and Get Stuck"
Capture Bitcoin's cyclical bottom through three "numbers."
Break down this complex theory into three "price steps":
🚩 Step 1: Enter the "Value Zone" ( Realized Price: $54,145 )
The realized price can be seen as the market's "average purchase cost."
Signal: When the price falls below $54,145, the market enters the so-called "value range."
Note: Falling below this does not mean an immediate bottom, but rather a "bottoming process." The real bullish signal is when the price oscillates below and then reclaims above $5
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BTC+1.10%
That's crazy. My AI actually seriously corrected me, saying: "We are definitely not in a bear market." And then someone attacked me personally, saying, "You're naturally anxious." I'm confused.
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Let's talk about testing the new DEX @PlanX_DEX. I was already mentally prepared, grabbed some sunflower seeds, and thought I’d have to deal with another laggy experience. Huh? But I found it to be incredibly smooth, everything went very smoothly, hardly like on-chain.
Besides Crypto, it also offers stocks—haha, getting better and better.
Additionally, I saw there are staking pools for wealth management. Thumbs up 👍
Most importantly, what attracts me to PlanX is Xgent, which aims to serve retail investors and is designed to counteract institutional-level AI execution.
This initial goal is ver
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I used to always fear that the market makers would target my small holdings, but now I've realized: as long as I don't even know whether I'll go long or short tomorrow, the market makers can never take me out.
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I'll summarize the market situation: mainly a cyclical rebound after oversold conditions, and an uptrend driven by the crypto market itself (rather than macroeconomic support).
1. Looking at the BTC weekly chart, the "yellow line" is a key resistance/support level. In 21-22, after price broke through $30k and rallied to $60k, it repeatedly tested the "yellow line" before entering a prolonged bear market decline. Using a mechanical approach, this round's "yellow line" is at $60k. Currently after retesting it, there's been a modest rebound, but then what? Does this kick off a major bull market?
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BTC+1.10%