#加密市场观察 Signals and Anomalies: Where is the Bottom?

A historic milestone for USDT surpassing Ethereum was triggered last week: Tether’s USDT fully diluted valuation (FDV) officially surpassed Ethereum, becoming the second-largest crypto asset globally.
What does this mean? The market is no longer willing to hold “productive assets” like Ethereum, instead funneling all funds into stablecoins for safety. The proportion of stablecoins in the total crypto market cap has now approached 15%, an all-time high. This is both a risk signal and a potential reversal signal—large amounts of capital are sitting on the sidelines, ready to quickly flow back once sentiment shifts.
Van Straten provides an important perspective: Since 2011, in every major bear market, Bitcoin has ultimately fallen below its realized price before establishing a cycle bottom. This signal has not yet appeared in the current cycle. In other words, if historical patterns hold, the bottom may not have arrived yet.

Key Observation Window This Week

⚠️ First Week of July: The “Moment of Truth” After Quarterly Settlement
On June 26, approximately $10 billion in notional value of Bitcoin options expired on Deribit. At current prices, put option holders are more likely to take profits, creating downward pressure on spot prices. With the centralized settlement of quarterly contracts completed and overall market leverage further reduced, the first week of July will be the window to test whether a true bottom has formed. Several core observation indicators:
1. Can BTC hold the $58,000 level? This is the most immediate support level. If broken, $50,000–$54,000 becomes the next key battleground.
2. Will ETF fund flows reverse? After seven consecutive weeks of net outflows, any week turning to net inflows would be a significant sentiment turning signal.
3. Will Strategy resume buying? If Saylor restarts Bitcoin accumulation at current levels, it would be the strongest signal of market confidence recovery.
4. Will the stablecoin ratio decline? When USDT’s share starts to fall from 15%, it means sidelined capital begins flowing back into risk assets.
5. Changes to CLARITY Act provisions. Whether the clause banning stablecoin interest is modified will directly affect the valuation logic of the DeFi sector.