6.29 Monday midday market analysis.

From the daily and 4-hour structure, ETH is still running in a clear weak channel, the trend has not changed, and the bearish structure still dominates.

After rebounding to the 1610 area over the weekend, it quickly fell back to oscillate around 1560-1580. This segment is essentially not a bottoming out, but a typical bearish continuation pattern - repair bounce + liquidity redistribution.

Many people easily misjudge here, thinking the market is stabilizing, but from a structural perspective, the inability to sustain the rally itself indicates that the trend has not changed.

Once the repair is over, the market will likely return to its original downtrend rhythm and continue to test liquidity areas downward.

From a larger cycle perspective, the current overall market is still in a consolidation phase with limited volatility, but the overall rebound momentum continues to weaken, and market sentiment remains cautious.

The core idea this week remains: oscillating weakly, waiting for a true bottoming structure to appear, rather than guessing the bottom in advance.

In terms of news, this week focus on the evolution of the US-Iran situation.

Although the agreement has been partially implemented, there may still be back-and-forth, and market risk aversion has increased significantly with news fluctuations, with uncertainty still high.

At the same time, there are two key time points this week:

Wednesday: Central bank governors from multiple countries speak at the same event; the market will watch for any new monetary policy signals.

Thursday: US non-farm payroll data release, which will directly affect the market's assessment of liquidity expectations.

From a funding perspective, crypto ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of approximately $1.9 billion over the past 5 days, indicating that institutions are still reducing risk exposure, and the overall defensive stance remains unchanged.

BTC trading suggestion: short near 60200, add to position at 60800, stop loss at 61500, take profit at 59400-58600.

ETH trading suggestion: short near 1590, add to position at 1620, stop loss at 1650, take profit at 1565-1530.