BTC breaks 59K again, ETF sees seven weeks of net outflows — June 29 market analysis

BTC weakened again today, breaking below $59k. As of afternoon, BTC is around $59,260, down about 1.1% in 24 hours. ETH moved down in sync, around $1,563. The Fear and Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone.

Main market pressure factors:

ETF funds continue to flow out. Crypto ETFs have seen net outflows exceeding $2 billion for the seventh consecutive week. Last Friday, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $445 million on a single day, with a monthly cumulative net outflow of about $4.06 billion.

On the macro front, the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Although the U.S. dollar index has pulled back from highs, it has risen for two consecutive weeks. Interest-free assets remain under pressure. U.S. stocks closed slightly lower last week, with the Nasdaq down 0.24%.

On-chain, Strategy's holdings show a paper loss of over $13 billion, with the mNAV ratio breaking below the 1.0 threshold. Galaxy Digital CEO pointed out that declining market confidence in Strategy is one of the significant reasons for this round of decline.

Key levels:

Resistance above: 59,800-60,000 is a strong resistance zone. Primary support below: 58,500-59,000. If it breaks with volume, watch the stage low of 58,030.

Summary: Short-term bears dominate, with limited rebound strength. Watch whether support at 58,500-59,000 can stabilize.