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Trump Effect ignites prediction market: Polymarket sees surging trading volume but embroiled in insider trading controversy

MeNews
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ME News, April 23 (UTC+8), the crypto prediction market platform Polymarket has become embroiled in an insider trading controversy due to prediction trades surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's policies and remarks. Data shows that from April 5 to 8 alone, markets related to the Iran situation generated approximately 413 million predictions, involving over $100 million in funds. Analysis points out that Trump's highly unpredictable decision-making style has significantly boosted activity in the prediction market, with topics such as whether he will take military action against Iran or push for a ceasefire becoming high-frequency trading targets. Trading volume surged rapidly following his social media posts. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. has been revealed to hold shares in Polymarket while also serving as an advisor to another prediction platform, Kalshi, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data indicates that political predictions have become the second-largest prediction market category after sports. Despite growing controversy, U.S. regulators remain generally lenient, driving continued expansion of this sector. (Source: ODAILY)
KALSHI15.03%
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