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The high-interest rate environment remains unchanged, and short-term positive news can hardly reverse Bitcoin's downward macro cycle.
Expiry pressure leads to weak oscillation: BTC 60100 slightly weakened, ETH $1595 slightly recovered, market enters negative gamma zone, Fear & Greed Index remains at low levels of extreme fear.
ETF weekly massive outflows: Bitcoin spot ETFs had net outflows of $1.79 billion in a single week, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the outflows; ETH ETFs also saw outflows, with only a few AI and XRP-related ETFs seeing minor inflows against the trend.
Coin strength divergence: SOL continues its rebound, slightly leading among major coins; MEME and AI sectors generally pull back, PEPE and HYPE both weaken, no strong market narrative.
Macro industry news: RWA platform Securitize confirmed listing on NYSE on July 2, raising $400 million; Ethereum Foundation layoffs and budget cuts weigh on ETH; Fed's high-rate expectations continue to suppress risk assets.
BTC macro cycle: In recent years, BTC's monthly close has never fallen below the mining cost.
When the price approaches the mining cost, unprofitable mines shut down, hashrate drops, mining difficulty adjusts downward, remaining miners' costs become lower, selling pressure decreases, the market naturally finds support, making it hard to stay below cost for long.
Especially after the 2024 halving, with ETF and institutional funds providing support, the price has quickly bounced back above the monthly line whenever it retraced to cost levels in recent years.
In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin was at 1.6 while the global mining cost was above 1.8, with monthly closes below cost for several consecutive months, causing countless miners to cut losses and exit; the 2018 and March 12 crashes also broke through the cost line.
Moreover, mining cost is not a fixed number; when electricity prices rise or hashrate increases, costs go up, and when miners shut down and difficulty drops, costs plunge.
Once global liquidity tightens and U.S. stocks plunge, during panic selling, the mining cost support cannot withstand the stampede, and it is entirely possible for the monthly line to break below production cost in the short term.
The cost range can be used for long-term accumulation, but one cannot be certain that the monthly line will never close below cost.
Current structure: BTC target 5.4-5.5, extreme 5W, will usher in its epic rebound rally!
Expiration pressure weak oscillation: BTC 60100 slightly weaker, ETH $1595 slightly recovered, market enters negative Gamma range, Fear and Greed Index remains at low extreme fear.
ETF weekly major outflows: BTC spot ETF single week net outflow of $1.79 billion, BlackRock's IBIT outflow scale tops; ETH ETF simultaneous outflows, only a few AI, XRP related ETFs contrarian small inflows.
Coin strength differentiation: SOL continues to rebound slightly leading mainstream; MEME, AI sectors generally pull back, PEPE, HYPE weaken together, market has no strong theme.
Industry macro news: RWA platform Securitize confirms July 2 NYSE listing to raise $400 million; Ethereum Foundation layoffs and budget cuts weigh on ETH; Fed high rate expectations continue to suppress risk assets.
BTC macro cycle: In recent years, Bitcoin's monthly closing has never fallen below mining cost. Once price approaches mining cost, unprofitable mines shut down, hashrate drops, mining difficulty adjusts down, remaining miners have lower costs, sell orders reduce, market naturally has support, hard to close below cost for long. Especially after the 2024 halving, with ETF and institutional funds underpinning, recent years' retests of cost have quickly recovered above monthly line.
In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin was at 1.6, at that time the global mining cost was above 1.8, monthly closes were below cost for several consecutive months, countless mines cut losses and exited; 2018, March 12 crash also all broke through cost line. And mining cost is not a fixed number, electricity price rises, hashrate increases cost becomes higher, mines shut down difficulty drops cost will dive again. Once global liquidity tightens, US stocks crash, panic selling when miners' cost support cannot withstand stampede, short-term monthly close below production cost is entirely possible. Cost range can be accumulated long-term, but cannot be certain that monthly line will never close below cost.
Current structure: BTC targets 5.4-5.5, extreme 5W, will usher in its epic rebound rise!