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- Ethereum Price Forecast: Ethereum Price Retreats Before Breaking Down Trend Resistance Line:
On the weekly chart, Ethereum shows a short-term bearish trend, with its price remaining below the key exponential moving averages. The seven-week exponential moving average is around $1817, and the twenty-week exponential moving average is around $2118, both well above the price, reinforcing the bearish trend along with the fifty-week exponential moving average at around $2525.
Momentum indicators indicate an oversold condition, with the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) around 30, while the stochastic (Stoch) is below 10, suggesting that while sellers remain in control, the pace of decline may be nearing its end.
Ethereum tested the support level of $1524 this week after experiencing a rejection at the confluence of the downtrend resistance line and the $1741 level.
On the upside, initial resistance remains at the downtrend line, followed by a cluster of barriers at $1741, $1806, and the 7-week exponential moving average. Above these levels, additional barriers exist at $1909 and $2019, before reaching the horizontal levels at $2108 and $2211.
Chart Analysis of ETH/USDT Pair (Binance)
Weekly Chart of ETH/USDT Pair
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1524, followed by a secondary support level at $1404. A deeper decline would expose the more significant base near $1156.
$ETH
Despite persistent negative sentiment across the market, sell-side positions in Ethereum derivatives have declined over the past three weeks, following the sharp drop in Ethereum’s price from more than $2,000 to nearly $1,560 at the time of writing.
This shift is reflected in the net trading volume on the Ethereum network, which has gradually moved out of the negative territory over the period mentioned above. This indicator measures the difference in trading volume between buyers and sellers in perpetual futures contracts using market orders.
The recent contraction suggests that selling pressure from traders on the price decline has eased after most of their positions became profitable following the drop.
Ethereum net trading volume. Source: CryptoQuant
Ethereum futures contracts also appear to have undergone a partial reset after the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) fell from 1.11 to 0.85 over the past three weeks. The estimated leverage ratio indicates the amount of leverage used in the cryptocurrency by comparing open interest to trading reserves.
The sharp decline in ETH’s ELR shows that a large number of leveraged positions have been wiped out, which could stabilize the market and reduce leverage risks.
Ethereum estimated leverage ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
While leverage fell alongside the shrinking of bearish positions, Ethereum derivatives still lean slightly to the downside, as funding rates continue to show negative readings—especially after further price drops over the past few days.
Meanwhile, institutional demand remained weak after six consecutive days of net outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, according to SoSoValue data. These products are moving toward recording seven consecutive weeks of outflows, which would be their largest weekly decline since January.
The realized price low is one of the most important levels that investors watch, as it served as an indicator of a market bottom in the previous two bear market cycles. This metric suggests that Ethereum’s price could drop by nearly 30% before stabilizing at this level.
$ETH