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Two days ago, when TSMC's price increase news came out, AI stocks collectively plummeted, Micron fell over 13% in a single day, and bitcoin:native fell below $60k.
The sentiment in the market those two days was that AI costs were going to spiral out of control, and then last night Micron's earnings report came out and completely flipped the script.
Revenue was $414.6 billion, beating expectations by 17.6%. EPS was $2511, beating expectations by 23.8% with a year-over-year increase of over 340%. Q4 guidance was $50 billion, while expectations were only $435.8 billion, again significantly exceeding.
Even more exaggerated, management said they signed 16 long-term strategic agreements guaranteeing over $100 billion in revenue, with HBM capacity sold through 2030 and memory shortages extending to 2028. After hours, MU rose over 13%, and this morning SK Hynix opened up 11%.
I think this earnings report shows that AI demand is so strong that no one cares about TSMC's price increase. The cost increase doesn't matter; the downstream side just takes it all, because if you don't buy, you won't get it.
Two days ago, the market feared that cost shocks would crush the AI investment logic, but that was directly slapped by reality. Around the same time, Jensen Huang said at NVIDIA's shareholder meeting that this AI infrastructure cycle will last decades. Together, these two things show that the sentiment center has shifted.
On the crypto side, bitcoin:native is now at $61,573, down 2% in 24h. $ETH $1645 and $SOL $69 are still slightly down, but the funding rate is -0.0028%, meaning shorts are paying longs. This signal indicates that the leverage washout from the past few days is mostly done, and the most panic phase has passed.
But I won't say it's a reversal now. The fundamental reason dragging crypto down is the Fed's policy shift, not TSMC's price increase. A single Micron earnings report cannot solve this problem. The PCE data is still coming out later this week, and the Fed hasn't shown any signs of easing.
My current judgment is that the worst panic-driven sell-off scenario has basically been lifted. But to go long again, we need to wait for $60K to firmly hold, and then see that PCE doesn't blow up. Only when both conditions are met is the real time to enter.
Observe for two days first.
DYOR Not investment advice.