#以太坊基金会重组降本 Current Situation of the Market (2026-06-25)

- Price: BTC around $60,800 (Gate.io $60,977), briefly broke below $60k last night to $59,023 (lowest since October 2024), down about 50% from the all-time high of $126k in October 2025.
- Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index 14-20 (Extreme Fear), total liquidations of ~$800 million yesterday (longs $253 million). ETH ~$1,617, SOL ~$68.
- Capital: Spot BTC ETF net outflows for 6-7 consecutive weeks (~$6 billion monthly outflows), retail buying power exhausted, capital siphoned off to AI tech stocks.

Core Suppression Logic

1. Macro Hawkish: Fed's June meeting signaled rate hikes (9/18 officials expect rate hikes in 2026), U.S. Dollar Index at 101.2, U.S. bond yields ~4.8%, opportunity cost of non-yielding BTC soaring.
2. Institutional Selling Pressure: Strategy slightly reduced holdings + stock hits new lows, ETF redemption mechanically sells; high leverage model (STRC 14% yield) raises doubts.
3. Structural Shift: Institutional ETF dominates (buying on upswing and selling on downswing amplifies volatility), retail absent, deep dip support weaker than previous bull-bear cycles.

Technicals: Bears in Control

- Trend: Daily descending channel, broke below 200-week MA (~$61,800), moving averages bearish alignment (50-day ~$74k, 200-day ~$77k), MACD death cross, RSI ~38 weak.
- Key Levels:
- Resistance: $61.2k-$61.5k (4H MA10) → $64.2k (top of range) → $67k (strong resistance) → $70k-$72k.
- Support: $60k (psychological) → $59k (yesterday's low) → $54k (realized price) → $46k-$50k (deep bottom range) → $35k-$40k (extreme).
- Only a clear recovery above $64,200 could lead to a technical bounce to $67k; a break of $60k targets $59k → $54k.

Future Scenarios

- Short-term (June-July): Oscillating bearish, grinding bottom. Tonight's PCE data + Friday's quarterly $10 billion options expiration heighten volatility. ETF outflows persist, hawkishness remains, any bounce on low volume likely to fizzle out. Tendency for weak oscillation in the $58k-$64k range, testing $59k/$54k if $60k breaks.
- Medium-term (Q3-Q4): Searching for a bottom and building a base. If the Fed turns dovish / the Clarity Act regulatory clarity arrives / ETF returns to net inflows, Q4 may see a recovery bounce. Institutional bottom estimates diverge ($46k-$60k), year-end target conservatively below $75k. Optimistic Standard Chartered sees a return to $100k (needs strong catalyst).
- Long-term: Institutionalization + RWA + Bitcoin Layer 2 evolution. If fiat allocation deepens (pension funds, etc.), the cycle lengthens. Long-term bullish on scarcity value remains.

Practical Approach

- Short-term contracts: Strictly avoid chasing ups and downs; high volatility leads to fast liquidations. Fade rallies (short on resistance at $61.2k-$61.5k), if it breaks below $59k aggressively, lightly go long for a bounce (strict stop loss). Do not go long if $64.2k is not broken.
- Spot DCA: Long-term investors should not go all-in now; no clear bottom signal yet (Fear & Greed not below 10, ETF not turned positive). DCA in batches (buy on big dips), keep positions at 5%-10% of high-volatility assets, stick to spot, avoid high leverage.
- Risk management: Friday's options expiry, PCE, Fed speeches, geopolitics are short-term bombs. Only use small capital for entertainment, only trade what you can afford to lose.

⚠️ Cryptocurrency is a 24/7 extremely high-risk market. The analysis above is for reference only and not investment advice. Strictly control your positions to avoid going all-in and losing everything.