#我的Gate交易时刻 Positive news everywhere but surged then plunged! Bitcoin and Ethereum deep market analysis on June 23: Bitcoin keeps absorbing blood, is Ethereum’s rebound just an illusion?

On June 23, the crypto market experienced a typical pattern of good news being realized followed by a downturn: US-Iran negotiations made progress, Bitcoin spot ETF saw five weeks of continuous outflows, institutional accumulation persisted, and multiple positive factors piled up. Bitcoin once surged past $65,500, but after the spike, there was no support, combined with negative US stock news, the market quickly reversed and declined.
What’s more concerning is that Ethereum followed Bitcoin’s surge but fell even deeper, ETH/BTC exchange rate continued to decline, market funds crazily flowed into Bitcoin, and Ethereum was completely caught in a passive blood-sucking trend. Is this rebound and fall a short-term shakeout or the start of a new downward trend? As options contracts approach a large settlement at the end of Q2, how should the coin prices be positioned over the next month and in the second half of the year? This article combines market price, macro news, institutional movements, and on-chain data to comprehensively analyze the current market’s true bullish and bearish landscape.
1. Real-time market overview: All-line surge then retreat, bulls and bears in a tense tug-of-war
1. Bitcoin: Range-bound between 64,000-64,500 USD, early surge fully retraced by June 23 trading session, Bitcoin maintained a narrow fluctuation between 64,000-64,500 USD. Relying on positive US-Iran negotiations, it quickly gained strength, briefly surging above 65,500 USD, hitting an intraday high. But after the positive news settled, bullish momentum rapidly exhausted, coupled with negative US stock news, the price quickly fell back, giving up most of the gains, now at a critical support/resistance level. Due to exchange time zones and quoting mechanisms, mainstream platforms show slight discrepancies, but overall, the slight upward trend remains.
2. Ethereum: Weak trend hard to reverse, long upper shadow indicates bulls are powerless
Ethereum’s movement is entirely dependent on Bitcoin, but weaker. Currently trading in the 1700-1760 USD weak zone. Last night, following Bitcoin’s surge to 1779 USD, it then experienced a sharp plunge back to around 1724 USD, with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, clearly signaling the end of this short-term bullish rebound.
2. Macro news analysis: Visible positives, why can’t the market rally?
Many traders wonder: with spot ETF funds flowing back, giants continuing to accumulate, and geopolitical risks easing, why can’t the price keep rising? The core reason is that short-term positive effects are being realized, but combined with sudden negative US stock news, the market is suppressed. The Fed’s hawkish stance has long suppressed the market, creating an extreme hedge between bullish and bearish signals.
✅ The four major hard-core positives supporting the market: the confidence that prevents deep declines
Geopolitical risks easing, inflation pressures easing, high-level US-Iran-Switzerland talks making substantial progress, with an agreement to finalize cooperation within 60 days. Iran’s oil re-entered the global supply, and international oil prices fell to a 16-week low. Falling oil prices directly ease global inflation pressures, giving the Fed room to pause rate hikes, and overall risk assets have a breathing space—this is the core trigger for Bitcoin’s short-term surge.
Listed companies continue buying, rumors of major investors’ collapse are thoroughly dispelled. MicroStrategy (now Strategy) has increased its Bitcoin holdings for the third consecutive week, buying 520 BTC from June 15-21, costing $39.4 million. The CEO publicly clarified the risk of preferred stock liquidation, dispelling rumors of major investors’ chain-reaction collapses. Currently, the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are close to $57 billion, with long-term institutional confidence firm.
Spot ETF hits a key turning point, ending five weeks of continuous outflows. After the US stock market opened overnight, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $128 million in a single day, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund restarting large-scale subscriptions, ending five weeks of persistent outflows. Historical data shows that in mid-June, the market also saw a single-day net inflow of $85.8 million, indicating that institutional bottom-fishing funds have quietly entered, though the volume is not yet enough to reverse the trend.
Ethereum ecosystem receives major positive news, filling development gaps. Ethereum’s ecosystem received significant positive support: the core researcher of the Ethereum Foundation co-founded a non-profit organization Ethlabs, with full backing from Ethereum’s founders, top investors, and leading ecosystem companies. Amid ongoing departures and governance disputes within the Foundation, Ethlabs will undertake RWA tokenization, on-chain AI ecosystem, and stablecoin development, addressing Ethereum’s R&D shortcomings. Meanwhile, leading institution Bitmine increased its ETH holdings by 52,203 ETH, approaching 5% of total supply, showing long-term confidence in Ethereum’s future value.
❌ Four major negative factors: the killers suppressing two rebounds—SpaceX’s billion-dollar debt impact on US stocks, risk assets under pressure
SpaceX announced plans to issue $20 billion in corporate bonds to fund AI infrastructure, causing its stock to plummet 16.4% in one day, with Nasdaq dropping 1.33%. As a high-risk asset, the crypto market is highly correlated with US stocks, which weakened along with the broader market, directly killing the bullish rebound.
The Fed’s hawkish stance remains unchanged, the strong dollar cycle is ongoing. The Fed kept interest rates steady but continued hawkish signals, with rate hike expectations still present. The strong dollar continues to suppress all non-US risk assets. As long as the Fed does not shift to easing, the crypto market will find it hard to sustain a continuous bull run.
Bitcoin’s blood-sucking effect is at full throttle, Ethereum funds continue to flee. Current market risk sentiment heats up, funds flock to Bitcoin for safety, ETH/BTC drops to a low of 0.027. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s on-chain TVL (Total Value Locked) has halved from $95 billion to $40 billion, DeFi ecosystem funds are massively retreating, spot buying is scarce, and rebounds rely solely on leveraged contracts, making the market extremely fragile.
Market panic is at its peak, traders are very bearish. CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index is only 21, in extreme fear; Korea’s panic index is as low as 20. Market forecasts show only a 51.5% chance that Bitcoin will hold above $64,000 today, and only a 2.1% chance to stay above $68,000. Most traders are not optimistic about a short-term breakout.
3. Technical analysis
In terms of technical patterns, Bitcoin’s daily and 4-hour moving averages are all in a bearish alignment, with prices under continuous pressure below the 60-day moving average, and the medium-term trend remains weak. However, daily RSI shows a bullish divergence, and MACD’s selling pressure is waning, indicating downside momentum may have bottomed out. The likely scenario is sideways consolidation with limited downside, with a key focus on the $10 billion options expiration on June 26, which could trigger short-term volatility and a short squeeze driven by market makers’ hedging needs.
Ethereum’s technicals are weaker than Bitcoin’s, with all cycle moving averages in a bearish alignment, and prices firmly suppressed below the 20-day moving average. Currently, the price is stuck near the middle Bollinger Band; a confirmed break below $1,700 support could open the downside space. To reverse the weakness, a volume breakout above $1,800 is necessary.
4. Short-term + second-half outlook:
1-4 weeks: Overall range-bound, avoid chasing highs or panicking at dips
Bitcoin: Maintain a broad range of $60,000-$67,000. Holding above $65,000 can target a rebound to $67,000; breaking below $63,000 suggests a correction, with key support at $62,000-$60,000 for phased bottom-fishing. No major breakout or plunge expected in the short term; consolidation is the main theme.
Ethereum: Weak oscillation between $1,700-$1,800. Holding above $1,700 can allow for short-term rebounds, but profit-taking should be done if it rises above $1,760; a volume-driven breakdown below $1,700 could lead to a decline toward $1,600. Remember: Ethereum’s current rebound is mainly driven by leverage, not spot funds, so avoid heavy long positions.
2026 second-half market forecast:
Bitcoin
Optimistic scenario: Fed signals rate cuts in H2 + ETF funds continue inflow, Bitcoin could rebound to $72,000-$78,000
Pessimistic scenario: Fed maintains tightening, market continues to bottom out, range locked at $60,000-$70,000
Ethereum
Optimistic scenario: Macro liquidity easing + ecosystem positive developments + ETF inflows, Ethereum recovers and surpasses $2,000
Pessimistic scenario: Bitcoin’s blood-sucking persists, on-chain funds continue to flow out, Ethereum remains bottomed, trading in the $1,500-$1,700 range
All market analyses and level judgments in this article are based on publicly available historical data and technical market deduction, solely for sharing market logic, and do not constitute any spot or derivatives investment advice.