6🈷️21 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News: Macro hawkish + institutional-related events suppress sentiment

Federal Reserve factors: After the June 18-19 Fed meeting, the interest rate was kept unchanged, but hawkish signals were released (possible further rate hikes later). Combined with strong US employment data, this reinforces expectations for a high-interest-rate environment. This is unfavorable for risk assets such as BTC, causing prices to retreat from the high levels at the start of the week.

Other events: Reports say Strategy (related to MicroStrategy) sold BTC to pay dividends, breaking the “never sell” narrative and increasing selling pressure in the short term. Overall market sentiment is in “Extreme Fear”.

Positive side: In the long run, some countries/institutions still adopt bullish stances (for example, some countries may increase their BTC holdings), but in the short term this has not formed a positive catalyst.

Summary: The news is neutral to slightly bearish, with macro tightening expectations dominating.

🤯 Capital flows: ETF outflows continue; institutional demand is weak

Yesterday and in recent days: US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows (for example, over $90M outflow in a single day in the middle of the week). June continued the outflow trend seen in May-June (accumulating tens of billions of dollars over multiple weeks). BlackRock IBIT and Grayscale GBTC are the main sources of the outflows.

Impact: The withdrawal of institutional funds directly increases selling pressure, and liquidity remains tight. Although cumulative inflows are still positive (~$55B historically), recent outflows are dominating, weakening rebound momentum.

🤯 Technical analysis:

The idea I shared with everyone yesterday was that the “second probe” at this level was basically completed, but there will still be some range-bound movement. So does the market start to rebound after completing the second probe? However, since price needs to continue moving in a sideways range to the right, the strength of a short-term upside rebound won’t be very strong. Even if it moves upward, it will likely come back down and continue to fluctuate lower; then, after that, there will be a relatively larger rebound.

So, in summary: a short-term rebound is likely. But at this current level, if there’s an opportunity to trade the range of 61,000 to 60,000, it’s still a good chance. On the day, also keep an eye on whether 64,700 can hold steady.

Support: 63000-61000
Resistance: 64700-66500#我的Gate交易时刻