STRC dropped to $83. Its IPO price was $90. The nominal value is $100. It is currently trading between $85 and $88.

This is not just the price movement of a preferred stock. This is a signal of a breakdown in a mechanism that the crypto market should structurally follow.
Let's first explain what happened.
STRC is a variable-rate perpetual preferred stock that Strategy launched in July 2025. With a $2.52 billion IPO, it was the largest IPO of 2025 up to that point. The company designed it as follows: STRC is sold, money is raised, Bitcoin is bought, Bitcoin gains value, dividends are paid, new STRC is issued, and the cycle continues.
Now the cycle has stopped.
Why?
First, the mechanism itself. When STRC falls below $100, the company is obliged to increase the dividend rate. There is a mandatory 0.5% increase below $95. This means an additional annual obligation of $53 million. Currently, the effective yield has reached 13.5%. As dividends increase, the cash burden increases. As the cash burden increases, the pressure to sell Bitcoin increases.
This is a self-reinforcing cycle. And the market sees this.
Secondly, the depletion of cash reserves. USD reserves were $2.25 billion in December 2025. Now they are around $900 million. A 60% decrease in five months. Annual preferential dividend obligations are between $750 and $800 million. So the available reserves cover approximately one year's dividend.
Thirdly, the June 1st break. Strategy broke its four-year "never sell" commitment at the beginning of June. It sold 32 Bitcoins for the dividend payment. $2.5 million. The number was small, but the message was big. On the same day as this news, the market experienced a $396 million ETF outflow and a $1.63 billion leverage liquidation.
Now I come to the main question. Will Saylor sell Bitcoin again?
To honestly answer this question, we need to look at three scenarios.
Scenario 1: Saylor doesn't sell, but increases the dividend. On June 30th, the dividend could be raised to 11.75% or 12%. This would attract buyers to STRC and could push the price above $90. In this scenario, there is no selling pressure on Bitcoin. But the annual liability grows.
Scenario 2: Saylor sells a small amount of Bitcoin, lowering the market, and then buys it back at a lower price. This theoretically increases the amount of Bitcoin per share. But to achieve this, BTC needs to actually go lower after the sale and then actually be bought back. This is a delicate operation. And every Bitcoin sale affects both the market and confidence in STRC.
Scenario 3: MSTR share sale. The company sold $209 million worth of MSTR shares this week and received 1,587 Bitcoin. This is an alternative financing route when the STRC channel is not working. But MSTR shares are also moving in parallel with BTC and are down 9% year-to-date. Saylor made a single statement during the Juneteenth holiday. He said the reserve covers 32 years of dividends. Mathematically correct. 846,842 BTC is approximately $54 billion at today's price. With an annual liability of $800 million, the mathematical calculation says 67 years. But the market evaluates trust, not mathematics.
And trust is currently fragile.
Jesse Myers said not to confuse this with Terra. He's right. STRC is not an algorithmic stablecoin. It has 846,000 real Bitcoins behind it. This is not a structural collapse scenario.
But the structure that Peter Schiff calls a "paper house" is also facing real pressure. If STRC doesn't work, alternative sources are needed for new Bitcoin purchases. Alternative sources are expensive. And as long as BTC stays between 62,000 and 65,000, this pressure continues.
I read this picture as follows:
In the short term, the June 30th dividend decision is critical. If the company increases the rate, this is a signal of confidence in STRC. If it doesn't increase, the market will interpret this as weakness. BTC holding above $65,000 is the cleanest way out to break this cycle. If BTC rises, STRC will naturally recover, and the door for new issuance will reopen.
In the long term, this story shows how deeply Bitcoin is integrated into institutional finance. This integration is both strength and risk. Strategy took this risk knowingly. And now it is experiencing that risk.
I hold STRC with a small position. Below $85, it's a 13.5% effective yield. When BTC returns to $70,000, STRC recovering to $100 means a 17% capital gain. Plus the monthly dividend.
This is an asymmetrical picture. But asymmetry doesn't always mean low risk.
My plan is written down. My size is what I can afford to lose.

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This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.