Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz Again – But Also Says It's Open

Just days after the US-Iran peace deal was signed, the Strait of Hormuz is back in chaos.

On June 19, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the strait was closed again. Their reasoning? Israel hasn't withdrawn from southern Lebanon. The US naval blockade hasn't been "completely lifted" – and under the MoU, that process takes 30 days. American forces are still in the region. The IRGC warned all ships to stay away. Any vessel that defies this directive will be targeted.

But hours later, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqaei stepped in and dismissed the closure reports as "baseless". He said commercial shipping is continuing through the strait and Iran is adhering to the MoU.

So who is telling the truth? Probably both. The IRGC is playing the hardliner. The Foreign Ministry is playing the diplomat. This internal split is not new.

The Trigger – Israel's Deadliest Strikes on Lebanon

Overnight, Israel launched intense airstrikes across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. At least 47 to 50 people were killed. Nearly 100 were wounded. The southern towns of Harouf and Haboush suffered the highest death tolls. At least two children were killed. Four Israeli soldiers also died.

The violence is the worst since the US-Iran deal was signed.

US-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed

The planned talks in Switzerland were postponed. Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip. Switzerland's foreign ministry confirmed the Burgenstock talks were off. Iranian officials said their delegation suspended the trip at the last minute because of Israel's attacks. One analyst put it bluntly: "Iran has now bolted the Israel-Lebanon fighting onto that pretext to hard-stop the whole deal".

Oil Prices – Confused but Holding

Oil tankers have started sailing through the strait again after the US lifted its blockade. Brent crude was set for a 9% weekly decline. But prices erased earlier losses and WTI rose 0.8% to $77.23.

The Bottom Line

Iran's government is sending two contradictory messages. The IRGC says the strait is closed. The Foreign Ministry says it's open. The MoU's 60-day clock is ticking. Israel is not cooperating. The US is mid-process on lifting its blockade. And Iran is exploiting every gap in the wording.

The market is pricing in a return to normal. But the reality on the ground is a lot messier.

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