Powell's debut "dismantles" the Federal Reserve—Hawkish + Peace Agreement = Bitcoin retraces all gains

In the early morning of June 18 Beijing time, Kevin Warsh made his debut as the 17th Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC unanimously voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause. But this is only superficial.
What truly changes the market are three things:
First, the dot plot has completely turned hawkish. Among 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year, with 6 advocating for a hike of over 50 basis points. Three months ago, no one expected a rate increase.
Second, the policy statement was compressed from over 300 words to about 130, removing all language hinting at "further rate adjustments." Warsh announced the abandonment of forward guidance.
Third, Warsh himself refused to submit dot plot forecasts, breaking a 14-year tradition, criticizing the dot plot as "drawn with a pencil, erasable," and announced the formation of five working groups to reform the Fed’s communication framework.
The market immediately voted with its feet— the US dollar index hit a one-year high, and Bitcoin dropped about 4% from its high of $66,400 to $62,620. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $578 million, with $496 million in long positions liquidated.
Geopolitical cards also did not follow the script.
On June 17, Iran and the US signed a memorandum of understanding remotely, the Strait of Hormuz reopened, and oil prices fell to $79. This should have benefited risk assets, but Bitcoin retraced more than 7% from its high of $67,300, completely giving back all the gains from the peace agreement. The script of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" plays again.
Two lines point in the same direction:
The Fed tightens liquidity, geopolitical easing ≠ liquidity return. BTC oscillates around $62,600, neither confirming a bottom nor showing signs of buying interest. Altcoins broadly decline, with ETH, XRP, and SOL each dropping over 3%.
Conclusion:
Expectations of rate hikes intensify, the dollar strengthens, and global liquidity systematically tightens. In front of Warsh’s "new Fed," it’s safer to watch more and act less than to chase bottoms. The script has changed, and so should positions.