- Altcoins experienced the largest immediate sell-offs since 2020 as the season indicator approaches the activation point:

The selling pressure on altcoins on spot trading platforms has decreased to its lowest level since 2020, recording 15 consecutive months of net selling in the market excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

But another indicator from CryptoQuant points to an opposite trend. The altcoin season indicator, which spans 180 days, is approaching a reading that historically signals the start of the altcoin season.

Two CryptoQuant indicators are moving in opposite directions
This indicator measures the cumulative difference between buy and sell volume for altcoins, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. A decline indicates the lowest level since 2020, suggesting continued net selling pressure on spot trading platforms.

Chart
A graph showing the difference between spot buy and sell volume for altcoins on CryptoQuant, indicating the lowest altcoin sell pressure in five years. Source: CryptoQuant
The indicator nearly returned to its normal level in early 2025, then reversed course and continued declining in the following months. According to an analyst from IT Tech, a subsidiary of CryptoQuant,

This is not a temporary decline. It is 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges.

The altcoin season indicator provides a balancing factor. The CryptoQuant 180-day indicator reads 18.48. One analyst states, "The altcoin season actually begins" once the indicator surpasses 20. The gap suggests increasing rotation rather than acceleration.

Analysts are divided on the altcoin season outlook
Joao Wydson, founder of Alfractaal, argued that many altcoins that suffered sharp declines in 2025 and early 2026 may avoid setting new lows.

He said that a large portion of the market has already entered a "recession" phase in the cycle, a period when many investors exit while major stakeholders quietly accumulate.

He added, "The rise of Bitcoin dominance is expected mainly from the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins. This does not mean all altcoins will disappear, but that capital will rotate in a highly selective manner."

Conversely, Crypto Kid adopts a pessimistic view. The trader states that a true altcoin season requires the same level of money printing that triggered the 2020 and 2021 cycles. He expects this around 2028 or 2029.

Both indicators still keep the short-term market outlook unclear. One shows that altcoins are experiencing their largest ongoing sell-off in five years, while the other indicates the market rotation indicator is approaching the activation point. The next move may depend on whether selective accumulation or waiting for a more flexible monetary policy is the right choice.
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