🎯 Market Mood: Event-Driven

📰 Main Narrative: Warsh's hawkish debut and a raised dot plot rattled risk assets across the board, while the formal US-Iran memorandum signing eased energy supply fears and pulled oil lower.
1️⃣ Macro & TradFi Pulse
🌐 The US and Iran formally signed a memorandum of understanding to cease military actions, lift sanctions, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing near-term energy supply concerns.
📉 The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% but the dot plot turned hawkish, with 9 of 18 officials now projecting at least one hike this year and the median projection raised to 3.75%.
🏦 Chair Warsh streamlined the policy statement, formed five special monetary working groups, and emphasized inflation remains well above the 2% target, signaling a more cautious forward guidance posture.
2️⃣ Crypto Market Signals
₿ $BTC slid to around $64,000 as the Fed's hawkish pivot triggered broad deleveraging, with long liquidations totaling roughly $310 million of the $440 million flushed in 24 hours.
🧩 $ETH declined in tandem, with the total crypto market cap holding just above $2.31 trillion as ETF flows remained relatively stable at $10.2 million net inflow.
🧩 Bhutan's government transferred 533 BTC worth roughly $34.5 million to a centralized exchange, continuing a pattern of sales that has totaled around $979 million over the past year.
3️⃣ Risk, Regulation & Infrastructure
⚖️ Strategy's preferred stock $STRC hit a new closing low of $89, down 11% from par, with its share buyback program paused while trading at a discount.
🔐 K33 Research reported long-term holders now control 79% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, a record high, with analyst Vetle Lunde citing reduced old-coin activity as a signal the bear market may be ending.