June 18 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News:

FOMC Meeting: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh but signaled a hawkish stance (due to inflation risks from energy prices, etc.), hinting at potentially higher rates in the future. This aligns with historical patterns—Bitcoin often weakens in the short term after FOMC meetings.

Geopolitical and Macro: News related to Iran, Trump developments, and overall risk asset sentiment influence the market. Discussions on stablecoins and the Clarity Act and other regulatory topics continue but have not led to significant breakthroughs.

Overall Sentiment: The market remains cautious ahead of Fed decisions, risk appetite is recovering but lacks strong catalysts. Long-term, institutional adoption, narratives like SpaceX, still exist, but short-term macro pressures dominate.

🤯 Capital Flow:

On June 16, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $10.2 million, ending a continuous outflow (previous 7 days -$373.9 million, 30-day total deep negative of -$5.66 billion). Major players like BlackRock IBIT led slight inflows, while GBTC experienced redemptions.

Earlier (May-June): Record outflows (e.g., 13 days -$4.4 billion, 9 days -$2.8 billion), reflecting profit-taking or rotation by institutions, but the continuous outflow streak ended around June 5.

Long-term holders (LTH) are still buying (about 125k BTC this month), indicating bottom accumulation confidence. On-chain capital flows are weak, but no signs of large-scale exchange outflows.

🤯 Technical Analysis:

Have I been reminding everyone lately to watch out for the risk of short-term top, and that support is at 64,700? Yesterday, we just retested 64,700 with a strong rebound candle, but after the rebound, it directly broke through 64,700. This morning, it’s bouncing back from 64,700 again, so the market is following my analysis and moving as expected.

Next, in the intraday chart, if the price doesn’t stabilize above 64,700, it will continue to fluctuate and trend downward. But we need to watch whether the four-hour MACD slow line can break below zero; a break below zero would mean this wave of行情 is over. If it doesn’t break below zero, it could form a bottom and rebound again. So overall, today’s market will mainly oscillate and fluctuate.

Support: 63,400 - 61,500
Resistance: 64,700 - 65,800 #Bitmine买入2万枚ETH