Analysis: BTC spot trading volume has fallen relative to its turnover, suggesting that bullish pressure is ebbing and prices may be entering a renewed bottoming-out phase.

BlockBeats news. June 17 — According to on-chain data analyst Murphy, what the current market is more worth paying attention to is not the “Bitcoin spot trading volume” itself, but the “spot relative trading volume” (i.e., spot trading volume / the 30-day average). This indicator is used to measure the relative level of market activity, but it does not have the ability to make a single-direction judgment; it needs to be interpreted together with the volume–price structure.

From a structural perspective, Bitcoin again tested the February lows in June, but the relative trading volume during this round of testing was clearly lower than in February, indicating that within a similar price range, the sell-off pressure from the second dip had noticeably weakened. This combination of “testing the lows again but with declining volume” is usually seen by the market as one of the characteristics of a phase in which selling pressure is exhausting.

On the derivatives side, since April, the funding rate for perpetual contracts has undergone significant changes: in the early negative-premium stage, it triggered a short squeeze and drove a price rebound; then by mid-May, the negative premium gradually disappeared and turned into a clear positive premium. After that, the market’s rebound ended and it entered a correction phase.

At present, the funding rate structure has gradually returned to a normal range, meaning that the downside acceleration effect previously driven by long crowding and leverage is weakening, and the long–short structure is starting to move toward balance.

Overall, spot demand is still relatively weak, but sell-off pressure is declining at the margin. Coupled with the weakening influence of leverage on the derivatives side, the market overall is closer to the operating rhythm of the previous 2–3 months, and may enter a new “range-bound bottoming” phase, but it has not yet formed a clear trend-reversal signal.