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Stocks were a little red today, without a significant headline. A grabbed some of what I sold early in the day after hours, seeing that things were already recovering. If we turn green tomorrow, I expect crypto to follow. Grabbed a little exposure there as well.
As far as Kevin Warsh and the Fed go, it is low probability that we would get any kind of surprise. He will say all the expected talking points, and likely sound moderately hawkish.
We can expect to hear no near-term cuts, with focus on data (4.2% headline in May), stronger jobs and economic momentum.
He will likely drop easing bias language, noting that conditions don’t justify cuts right now. He will do this to maintain Fed neutrality in the face of pressure from the administration.
All that against a backdrop of a market that still believes a rate hike is almost 50/50 before the end of the year, and companies reporting blowout earnings.
The bubble callers love to cite the high-flying semis, but they aren’t seeing that earnings are broadly keeping up with price increases in the stocks. If earnings were dropping or stagnating, we’d have a problem. That’s not the case.
If the market gives further dips, I’m looking at those as strong buys.
For stocks I added $AMD (big discount) $INTC $HOOD AH and will go shopping in the morning if red shows up.
For crypto I’ve grabbed $CRV $ICP $ENA ($BTC short hedge)
Btw $BTC is still a good short if you are in any way bearish on the markets overall. If the indices do turn red, I expect it to be down more.