Current price: 1748 USDT, down 2.56% in 24 hours, weakening in sync with BTC, yesterday's rebound momentum quickly faded; overall long-term bearish trend remains unreversed, intraday at a high level with a pullback and oscillation pattern, ETH volatility significantly higher than BTC, tonight's Federal Reserve rate decision is the main driver for the entire day, trading should focus on range-bound selling high and buying low, reduce positions and strictly control leverage before major news releases.

1. Key Long and Short Price Levels (Contract Practical Range)

Resistance levels (from near to far)

1. Intraday short-term resistance: 1785–1800 (4-hour Bollinger middle band + yesterday's oscillation center, the key threshold for strength and weakness, first resistance zone for rebound)

2. Mid-term strong resistance: 1875–1910 (Daily MA20 combined with previous trapped positions, core resistance for this rebound)

3. Trend reversal threshold: 1990–2010 (Upper boundary of the box, only a volume-supported break can reverse the medium-term bearish structure)

4. Long-term resistance zone: 2130–2150 (Previous decline launch platform, accumulation of medium- and long-term large trapped positions)

Support levels (from near to far)

1. Intraday short-term support: 1710–1720 (Hourly short-term support platform, first defense for bulls)

2. Rebound lifeline: 1645–1655 (Low point of this rally, if broken on 4-hour close, the market correction is fully over)

3. Monthly strong support: 1590–1600 (Bottoming zone at the end of June, ultimate defense for bulls)

4. Extreme downside area: 1490–1510 (Deep correction target, breaking below opens medium-term downtrend channel)

2. Multi-cycle Indicator Breakdown

Daily chart D1 (Medium to long-term trend)

• RSI(14)=47.1, below the 50 midpoint, indicating technical correction after decline, no bullish reversal signal

• MACD: Bullish crossover below zero line, but red bars continue to shrink, bullish buying power weak, bearish selling pressure gradually returning

• Moving averages: Price under MA20, MA50, MA100 all below price, standard bearish alignment, heavy resistance overhead

• Capital flow: ETH spot ETF funds continue to outflow, this rally driven only by short covering, no long-term incremental funds entering; ETH/BTC exchange rate remains low, trend weaker than BTC

4-hour H4 (Core trading cycle for contracts)

• RSI dropped from overbought 62 to 49, bullish momentum significantly weakened, continuous pullback indicates clear digestion of demand

• Bollinger Bands narrowing, price falling below middle band, upper band at 1798 resistance, lower band at 1648 support

• Candle structure: Slightly higher lows, but higher highs keep declining, indicating weak oscillation, no single-sided upward structure

• Contract positions: Short squeeze ended, open interest shrank, bullish and bearish divergence converged, market awaits tonight’s Fed rate decision for direction

1-hour H1 (Intraday short-term cycle)

Bullish momentum fully exhausted, MACD red bars zeroed, double lines bearish crossover, candles continuously closing lower, overall intraday pressure weak, slight rebounds face selling pressure.

3. Two Market Path Scenarios

Path 1: Volume-driven rebound continuation (low probability, double confirmation needed)

Confirmation: 4-hour close above 1800 with volume increase, Fed signals dovish rate cut, BTC strengthens

• First take profit: 1870–1910

• Second take profit: 1990–2010

• Failure signal: Rapid fall below 1750 after breaking above 1800, indicating a false breakout and pull-up

Path 2: Continuous pressure and decline (main intraday trend, favoring downside before the rate decision)

1. First support test: 1710–1720 (intraday low-buy zone)

2. Second support test: 1645–1655 (rebound threshold)

Break risk: 4-hour close below 1645, target directly at 1600, extreme scenario down to 1490–1510 zone

4. Three Complete Contract Trading Strategies

Strategy 1: Short-term low buy (buy on dip and stabilization, no chasing)

1. Entry conditions: Dip to 1710–1720, 4-hour candle closes with a bullish reversal, volume shrinks and stabilizes

2. Partial take profit: TP1 at 1780 (reduce position by 50%); TP2 at 1798 (close all)

3. Stop-loss: 1700 (break below short-term support, bullish logic invalidated, exit)

4. Risk-reward ratio: ≥2:1, do not open if not met

Strategy 2: Short-term high short (buy on rebound near resistance, avoid top chasing)

1. Entry conditions: Rebound to 1785–1800 resistance, 4-hour candle shows long upper shadow and topping pattern, volume stagnates

2. Partial take profit: TP1 at 1715 (reduce by 50%); TP2 at 1650 (close all)

3. Stop-loss: 1815 (break above resistance zone, bearish logic invalidated, exit)

4. Risk-reward ratio: ≥2:1

Strategy 3: Range-bound observation (best before rate decision)

Price remains in a narrow 1720–1785 range with low volume, avoid opening new positions; reduce holdings significantly during tonight’s rate decision to avoid high volatility and false spikes.

5. Strict Risk Control Rules (enforced today)

1. Leverage control: intraday leverage ≤6x, during Fed rate decision ≤3x, ETH’s volatility much higher than BTC, strictly prohibit high leverage trading on news

2. Position management: max loss per trade ≤1% of total account funds, use small positions, no full margin bets

3. Stop-loss discipline: set stop-loss at opening, do not move stop-loss, do not hold losing positions, avoid adding to losing trades

4. Trading constraints: stop trading after two consecutive stop-outs on the same day, prevent emotional contrarian trades

5. Position cost: monitor funding rates for overnight positions, minimize holding time to reduce costs

6. Market Core Risks Warning

1. Macro news risk: tonight’s Fed June meeting, ETH highly sensitive to interest rates; hawkish stance or high rates will cause ETH to fall more than BTC; only dovish signals can open rebound space

2. Correlation risk: market tightly linked to BTC, ETH’s rebound elasticity is greater during BTC declines, no independent upward trend

3. Capital structure risk: current rebound driven by short covering, spot incremental funds are insufficient, rebound lacks sustainability, no positive news can cause rapid fall

4. Contract liquidation risk: ETH daily volatility can reach 8%-11%, frequent false spikes around rate decision, no stop-loss can easily trigger chain liquidations

5. Chip pressure: 1870–2150 zone has dense medium- and long-term trapped positions, difficult to break through without huge capital influx
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