#ETH Daily Strategy

Main force counterattack! 8.86 million outflow causes a major reversal, the 1796 steel defense line makes a desperate counterattack, and the daily bullish frenzy is about to trigger a second explosion!
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If you think yesterday’s sharp rise and fall signaled the end of the market, then you’ve completely fallen into the main force’s bearish trap. The latest market data makes it clear: selling pressure at high levels has been instantly drained, bullish shakeouts have declared an end, and the horn for a second charge has already sounded!
​We unconditionally return to the most classic and pure large, medium, and small cycle momentum structures. Below is a cold-blooded practical analysis tailored to the latest battlefield:

​Part One: Macro news, crowd psychology, and exchange rate deep dive

​News and capital flow: Selling pressure rapidly exhausted! $-8.8689 million net outflow nearly bottomed out, bullish main force secretly completed a switch
Looking at the latest perpetual market data, daily net capital outflow shrank crazily from previous 170 million USD to just $-8.8689 million USD! With a huge total position of $4.06B USD, a mere few million outflow means profit-taking at high levels has been thoroughly drained by the market. Not only did the main force not retreat, but they also used yesterday’s correction to complete extremely cold-blooded low-level chip switching in the 1760-1780 range, filling the water reservoir again!

​Crowd psychology analysis: +0.0032% rate hides deadly traps! Retail investors hesitate, just before a short squeeze explosion
Funding rate slightly adjusted to +0.0033% to +0.0032%. Yesterday’s violent dip successfully scared away many high-level chasing longs with leverage, and retail investors are now in a state of extreme hesitation—“longs dare not chase, shorts dare not open.” This brief cooling of market sentiment just clears the cleanest runway for the main force to launch an unexpected second “pulling onions and squeezing shorts.”

​ETH/BTC rate analysis: refueling completed, one-sided bloodsucking market can restart at any time
Ethereum’s rate, after a technical retracement, found strong support at a key defense point, completing the refueling pattern. With net capital outflow nearly zero, the local bullish network’s blood-making function has recovered, ready to re-suck the big pancake with bloodthirsty suction.

​Part Two: Deep analysis of technical indicators and support/resistance on large, medium, and small cycles
​Strip away all noise, and align the latest cross-cycle core indicators and moving average defenses coldly:

​Large cycle structure (weekly/daily): Weekly J value steadily rising, daily green bar (47.77) continues to erupt
​Weekly trend: Weekly KDJ J value (17.40) and StochRSI (13.95) are steadily and resolutely rising from historic lows. This confirms that the macro tidal rebound’s attraction has not weakened but is spreading into deeper waters.
​Daily trend: Daily MACD bullish energy bar locked at the expansion high of 47.77. Although yesterday’s price precisely hit the daily slow line (1839.14) and then retreated, the K-line body firmly stayed above the fast line (1750.70), and today a green K-line of counterattack was directly formed. This indicates the macro ceiling is being repeatedly eaten away by bulls, and a breakout is only a matter of time.

​Medium cycle structure (4-hour cycle): precisely hitting the 1774 fast line defense again, bulls refuel
​On the 4-hour chart, the previous correction and sell-off were forcibly supported by a mysterious buy order after precisely touching the 4H fast line (1774.04). The current price has again surged near 1796. MACD remains in the bullish dividend period above zero, and after technical cooling, the mid-term engine is fully revived.

​Small cycle structure (1-hour cycle): indicators fully repaired, moving averages converging for explosive breakout
​The micro 1-hour chart is the most stunning change within the day! StochRSI (38.16) and KDJ have completely drained and repaired from yesterday’s extreme overbought zone. The price has already forcibly re-claimed above the 1H slow line (1788.01) and fast line (1793.05), and the moving average network is beginning to converge upward, forming an excellent micro rebound launch pad.

​Core support and resistance radar:
​Intraday short-squeeze trigger (resistance): 1833 - 1839 zone (confluence of 1H trend resistance line and daily slow line).
​Intraday bullish first step (support): 1788 - 1793 zone (overlap of 1H fast and slow lines).
​Band steel foundation (support): around 1774 (4H fast line, a defense line that bulls must not lose).

​Part Three: Short-term, mid-term, and long-term bullish/bearish trading plans at specific levels
​Everyone must follow the crocodile rule, strictly lock the maximum 2% loss risk control red line, prohibit subjective holding, and execute the following plan like a cold-blooded machine:

​1. Long position pre-plan (trend-following, buy on dips)
​Short-term long plan:
​Specific level: place orders to ambush in the 1788 - 1793 zone.
​Execution logic: 1-hour indicators are fully repaired, and moving averages are now supporting bulls. Current price 1796 does not chase blindly; wait for a micro retracement to the 1H fast line (1793.05) and slow line (1788.01) zone to gradually add long positions, aiming for a secondary intraday surge.
​Stop-loss: strictly set below 1779 (if it falls below 1780, macro support fails, and exit short-term trades).
​Take profit: target 1825 - 1833.

​Mid-term swing long plan:
​Specific level: hold orders tightly in the 1765 - 1774 zone.
​Execution logic: this is the strategic moat at the 4H fast line (1774.04). If main force initiates a false move or trap with any news, ignore panic and directly add to the bottom of the swing position within this zone.
​Swing stop-loss: strictly set below 1740 (if the 4H candle closes below 1744.45, the mid-term rebound structure is declared dead, and unconditional surrender).
​Main profit target: once shaken out, aim for 1839; if volume breaks through, the pattern extends above 1900.

​Long-term buy plan:
​Execution logic: continue holding the previously accumulated 1500-1535 strategic long-term spot holdings. The weekly rebound tide has just begun, do not get shaken out by intraday dips midway.

​2. Short position pre-plan (countertrend defense, high pressure on the right side)
​Short-term short plan:
​Specific level: place orders to ambush in the 1833 - 1839 zone.
​Execution logic: given the daily bullish trend dominated by bullish green bars, there is currently no reason for a one-sided short. The only short opportunity is when the price pulses again and hits the 1H bearish pressure line (1833.19) and daily slow line (1839.14), using minimal position to attempt a short-term resistance pullback.
​Stop-loss: strictly set above 1850 (if it breaks above the previous high 1848.78, shorts must immediately jump out unconditionally).
​Target: quick in and out, look back at 1800 - 1795.

​Mid-to-long-term short plan:
​Execution logic: temporarily cancel all mid-to-long-term left-side short plans! Under the macro support of daily and weekly resonance rebounds, mid-to-long-term shorts are akin to rushing headlong into a train. The strategic short force must hold back their desire, waiting until the price truly exhausts rebound momentum, reaches the 1950-2000 ultimate pressure zone, and the right-side structure breaks down before acting.

​The daily MACD green bars are expanding recklessly, and the 1-hour super-momentum has cooled and refueled completely. Brothers, this big bull-bear net welded from 1796 is now fully exposed. Are you ready to precisely buy on the micro dips at 1788-1793, or wait for the macro resistance at 1839 to go for a short? We’re in the usual place, radar fully on, see you there!