June 17 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News: Yesterday's geopolitical easing + macro expectations supported a rebound

Preliminary progress on the US-Iran peace agreement (announced over the weekend, official signing expected on June 19), the Strait of Hormuz reopening, oil prices retreated, and risk assets were boosted. Bitcoin rebounded from lows, briefly reaching the 66k+ region yesterday.

ETFs like BlackRock IBIT saw sporadic buying (such as partial inflows on June 15), institutions like Saylor/Armstrong boosted confidence (viewing $60k as a bottom). The BOJ raised interest rates but with a dovish tone, which did not significantly suppress risk sentiment.

Today’s Federal Reserve meeting (June 17) is approaching; inflation data (such as May CPI) may influence the rate path, with high short-term volatility. Overall news sentiment shifted from extremely pessimistic to cautiously optimistic, but no sustained driving force has formed.

Summary: Geopolitical easing was the main reason for yesterday’s rebound, with short-term sentiment recovery, but macro uncertainties still remain.

🤯 Capital Flow: ETF outflows continue mainly, derivatives leverage has been released

ETF Flows: Record outflows in early June (tens of billions in a single week, over 4 billion cumulative), 13 consecutive days of outflows since mid-May. Recently, there has been a slight stabilization (such as partial net inflows on June 15), with continued small-scale buying by firms like BlackRock providing support. Overall institutional demand remains weak, which is a main pressure on prices.

Funding Rates & Liquidations: Perpetual contract funding rates recently are neutral to slightly positive or mildly negative (not extreme), leverage has been reduced. Yesterday’s rebound was accompanied by some short squeeze, but no extreme crowding was observed. Historically, low funding rates often accompany rebounds, but sustainability needs to be monitored.

On-chain: MVRV Z-Score is in a low (undervalued) zone, Puell Multiple shows miner pressure easing, HODL signals exist, supporting long-term bottom formation, but short-term selling pressure still needs to be absorbed.

Summary: Capital flow remains a drag, but the outflow momentum is easing marginally + leverage has been released, providing conditions for a rebound. Continued inflows are needed to confirm a trend reversal.

🤯 Technical Analysis:

Yesterday, I mentioned that the trend would still be oscillating sideways and upward; currently, the upward momentum in the market is gradually weakening. I’ve been emphasizing that this level can only be considered a rebound, not a reversal.

It’s difficult to determine whether this rebound has ended at this point. The next focus is whether the four-hour level can find support at 64,700, and MACD must not break below zero. A break below zero would mean this wave of rebound has ended. On the one-hour level, there is a need for a pullback at this position.

In summary, the continuation of downward correction cannot break below 64,700, while upward movement needs to stabilize above 66,900. Strong resistance remains near 68,200.

Support: 64,700-63,500
Resistance: 66,400-67,300-68,200