Guangfa Hong Kong: AI hardware supply chain experiences increased short-term volatility, but fundamentals remain strong

BlockBeats News, June 16 — GF Securities Hong Kong states that the global semiconductor sector has experienced a significant short-term rally, and profit-taking by investors may lead to faster rotation, but AI infrastructure, storage price increases, and advanced packaging demand will continue to support the tech hardware cycle.

Analysts like Jeff Pu mentioned in the June 16 overseas tech monthly report that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index valuation has risen to about 32 times P/E, facing short-term macro uncertainties and crowded trading pressure. However, the fundamentals of semiconductors and AI remain solid, inventories are healthy, PC demand exceeds expectations, and automotive and industrial demand are also recovering.

The report states that although new platforms like Blackwell reduce the cost per token, agent tasks lead to higher token consumption, and AI overall bills continue to rise. GF Securities Hong Kong believes that models from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have strong ARR, AI investment returns are beginning to show, and will continue to support cloud vendor capital expenditures.

GF Securities Hong Kong estimates that the five major US cloud service providers will spend $812 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, up 82% year-over-year; rising to $1.053 trillion in 2027. The global AI accelerator market size is expected to grow from $359 billion in 2026 to $818 billion in 2028.

Storage remains one of the most favored themes in the report. GF Securities Hong Kong states that NAND may outperform DRAM, expecting NAND prices to increase by 25%-30% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, DRAM contract prices to rise by 15%-20%, and HBM pricing may see greater flexibility by 2027.

In optical communications, the bank believes concerns over delays in CPO and HVDC have been overstated. The report predicts that demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules will reach about 80 million units by 2027, driven by expansion of GPU and ASIC clusters from Nvidia, Google, AWS, and others.

GF Securities Hong Kong also added Intel, Credo, Micron, MediaTek, and Marvell to its preference list, while removing TSMC, AMD, Lumentum, EMC, and TI. Overall, the bank maintains a "constructive with volatility" outlook on the overseas tech sector.

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