A month ago my Iran book was deep in the red and every read I got said the same thing:

don't touch the peace side, the data doesn't back it.
That take feels responsible and it's mostly wrong. If the data already backed a deal, the YES wouldn't be cheap. You get paid precisely because nothing's confirmed yet, and the longer it stays quiet the more overdue the next "something's cooking" headline gets.
Whether it actually lands is a separate bet — but fading the silence is not the free money it sounds like.
Around May 24 a short de-escalation tanked the whole cluster. I'd sized heavy on peace and it stung. I read it as bad timing. The thesis still held, so I bought more down there and averaged in at levels I'd never have seen if I waited for confirmation.
Then it flipped. Before the de-escalation we got escalation — US strikes, book underwater again, consensus again that I was an idiot holding a peace-heavy cluster into a shooting war. The panic kept forgetting I had time. These legs didn't resolve for weeks.
How I ran it: NO on the short-dated stuff, YES and long-dated on the big ones. Scaled out into every spike, redeemed the announcement legs at a dollar as they resolved, kept the long tail on.
Iran cluster, all in: +$26,390. Most of it booked, a small tail still open.
It cost a month of stress and more doubt than I'd like to admit. Plenty of those days I felt like a moron holding the bag. This time the moron was right.