Serenity: AI's impact is comparable to the Industrial Revolution, and there are no clear signs of a turning point in capital expenditure yet.

BlockBeats News, June 16 — Serenity issued a statement stating that they personally believe AI is indeed the most disruptive technology in human history. Its impact could be comparable to the Agricultural Revolution or the Industrial Revolution. Companies represented by OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI are driving a race toward "superintelligence," and its long-term economic effects may be difficult to quantify, including breakthroughs in healthcare (such as cancer treatment), acceleration of scientific research (such as quantum computing), and overall productivity improvements. At the same time, AI may also lead to structural labor displacement, significantly increasing corporate profit margins in the medium to long term and reshaping macroeconomic growth paths.

From a macro and industry structure perspective, the U.S. government also has strategic motives to continuously promote AI infrastructure development, especially in military capabilities, cybersecurity, and technological competition, to avoid falling behind in the U.S.-China tech race. Therefore, even if the short-term commercial returns from AI model training and inference have not fully covered costs, policy support and strategic subsidies may still sustain industry expansion. On the funding side, cloud and platform giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet rely on strong cash flows to support capital expenditures, while the sustainability of Meta Platforms and Oracle is relatively more controversial. Meanwhile, the market is beginning to focus on debt financing and valuation structures related to AI infrastructure, such as companies like CoreWeave, which may face pressure between debt costs and growth expectations.

Although there are some bubble concerns about "revolving financing" and "order reflows" (such as long-term procurement agreements between cloud providers and GPU supply chains), for example, NVIDIA and AMD with downstream cloud vendors and new cloud service providers, historical experience shows that such concerns often diverge or even correct as performance is validated. At the same time, upstream semiconductor and optical communication supply chains (including storage and high-speed interconnects) are still considered to be in a demand expansion phase rather than at the end of a bubble. The current market’s key variables focus on three points: whether AI capital expenditure has peaked, whether there are risks of financing or demand chain transmission related to OpenAI, and whether the Federal Reserve will tighten liquidity prematurely due to inflation and growth trade-offs. In the absence of clear turning point signals, the market generally believes that the AI-driven capital expenditure cycle may continue for at least one mid-term phase.