Added some positions $HOOD


The logic is as follows:
Robinhood's predicted market-related revenue for Q1 2026 (the "other transaction revenue" in the financial report) is about $147 million, a 320% year-over-year increase, corresponding to a total net income of $1.07 billion in Q1, accounting for about 14%.
But this is money that needs to be paid to Kalshi, and on June 4th, before the World Cup, they switched to using their own Rothera for prediction markets, so no payments are needed, and with the World Cup volume, gross profit will inevitably grow.
June data (early July) → World Cup wrap-up (7/19) → Q2 financial report (8/5) is a continuous chain of catalysts. Currently, the market's estimated annualized return for Robinhood is $586 million. If the actual results exceed expectations, then the current stock price isn't expensive, and there could be another wave.
Today, during layoffs, the company mentioned a very valuable point: "The company said that since June, the average daily trading volume in stocks, options, and prediction markets has been at record levels." So, this indirectly confirms that the World Cup has brought unprecedented revenue to their prediction market products, which is more valuable than the layoffs news itself.
Therefore, I think before the final results are announced on August 5th, the market is more likely to speculate positively.
I added a bit of position as a recognition of the certainty of today's news, then watch subsequent orders and see if the FOMC turns hawkish to pick up some cheap assets.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
No comments
  • Pinned