Today, the data on long-term Bitcoin holders has once again hit a new all-time high—currently, 14,945,950 BTC (accounting for 74.54% of the circulating supply) have an average holding period of over 155 days.

This data confirms that long-term holders are continuing to accumulate. Looking back to early June, influenced by tense US-Iran relations, BTC experienced a pullback, and long-term holders slightly reduced their holdings, while exchange reserves increased. However, as the US signaled a move toward full peace, this "smart money" quickly returned, resuming buying activity.

Note: The "long-term holders" defined here are not only those whose on-chain holdings have been static for over 155 days. Even if investors have recently bought BTC, as long as their overall position’s average holding period exceeds 155 days, they are still considered long-term holders.

Along with the continued accumulation, the BTC reserves on exchanges are gradually decreasing. These two data points together indicate that, after the phased easing of US-Iran tensions, investors are regaining enthusiasm for risk assets.

As predicted in last week’s analysis: once a peace agreement is reached, risk markets are bound to rebound. This not only signifies the safety of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz but also suggests a decline in WTI oil prices and a cooling of US inflation expectations. For the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting early Thursday and for Warsh, this undoubtedly constitutes a positive signal for policy shifts, prompting investors to position themselves early in anticipation of this certain rebound. #btc $BTC