#我的Gate交易时刻 June 14th, the United States and Iran announced a temporary agreement. On the same night the news broke, BTC jumped directly from around 60,000 to over 65k. Nasdaq futures rose 2.5%, S&P 500 futures increased by 1.6%.

My first reaction was to chase.

But I held back. Because I remembered April and early June—the previous two ceasefire agreements were also reached, and then all broke down, with BTC giving back all the gains from the rebound.

So I did something else: I looked around in the Gate prediction market. At that time, the prediction contract data related to the Strait of Hormuz was very interesting; the market’s pricing on “how long the agreement can last” was clearly optimistic. I started to doubt: is this optimism overdone?

In the end, my approach was: take a small long position, with a strict take-profit at around 68k; at the same time, I bought a contract in the prediction market betting on “the agreement will break within June” with a very low position as a hedge.

And the result? BTC indeed rose above 66k, but before reaching 68k, it started to consolidate at high levels. My long position’s take-profit wasn’t triggered, but the hedge in the prediction market helped lock in some profits.

This trade made me re-understand the essence of “news-driven markets”: the news itself isn’t important; what matters is whether the market’s pricing of the news is reasonable. When everyone rushes in because of good news, the real opportunity may lie in judging how much that good news is worth and how long it can last.

More importantly—Wincent’s senior executive Paul Howard is right: for BTC to re-approach the 77k USD 200-day moving average, three conditions must be met simultaneously: sustained ETF capital inflows, confirmation of lasting geopolitical easing, and macro conditions supporting risk appetite. None of these three conditions are fully in place yet.

So my current strategy for this type of news-driven market is very simple: don’t chase the first green candle, wait for a pullback confirmation; take small positions for trial, with strict stop-loss; use prediction markets for directional hedging.

To newcomers I want to say: the market rewards not the fastest runner, but those who survive the longest. When news comes out, being a little slower is more important than being faster.