#我的Gate交易时刻

In June of this year, Gate's prediction market achieved the number one ranking in channel trading volume. In May, the monthly trading volume was $29.4 billion, and in the first week of June, an additional $6 billion was added.

When I first started playing prediction markets, like most people— I chose a direction I thought was "sure to win" and placed my bets. After losing a few times, I realized: "What I 'think' doesn't matter in prediction markets; what matters is 'what others haven't seen.'"

The most impressive prediction I recently encountered was about the US-Iran agreement. During the two days after the agreement was announced, about 69% of the market was betting that "the agreement will last until July." My judgment was: this pricing was too optimistic—both previous ceasefires had broken down, so why would this one be different? So I bought a small position betting that "the agreement will break within June" at over 60%.

The outcome doesn't matter. What matters is that this process of judgment helped me re-understand the relationship between probability and odds: when a result is priced at 69% by the market, unless you have an additional informational advantage, heavily betting on it means taking on low returns and high risks.

The biggest difference between prediction markets and spot/contract trading is: in spot trading, you profit from the direction; in prediction markets, you profit from "market mispricing." The former relies on judgment, the latter on the ability to identify collective misjudgments.

Gate has now integrated prediction markets into the Alpha entrance on the app's homepage, with a prediction challenge for 35 key matches during the World Cup. For newcomers, I strongly recommend trying prediction markets with small amounts of money—it's the best training ground for judgment because every bet forces you to seriously consider "what's the probability" rather than "what do I think will happen."