Around four in the afternoon, the coffee shop downstairs wasn't crowded, and sunlight was slanting in, looking a bit pale.

A friend who works in foreign trade invited me to sit for a while; he just came back from the factory, still looking a bit tired.
He started by saying that this year's orders are much harder than last year's, but he's still planning to add a production line, saying as long as he holds on, the cycle will eventually return.
He spoke very naturally, with that typical judgment of "hang in there, it'll get better."
I didn't delve too deep into that topic, just opened my phone to check the market.
ETH was fluctuating around 1800, like being stuck in the middle of stairs—neither going up nor coming down.
I said, your current decision is very similar to this market situation.
He looked up at me.
I said, on the surface, it’s "not broken yet," but essentially, it’s "lacking a confirmed direction."
This kind of position is the easiest to misjudge.
Because it’s neither a crash nor a takeoff, more like a false sense of stability.
Once someone stays in this state for a long time, they tend to mistake "nothing happening" for "no problem."
He chuckled and said, are you using the market to talk about reality again?
I said, the market has always been talking about reality; most people just listen to the part they want to hear.
I handed him my phone to show him.
ETH has been tested repeatedly around 1800, but each rally lacks continuity, and trading volume hasn't expanded significantly.
I said, if this is a strong reversal, it shouldn't drag on like this.
The real trend should either break out decisively upward or release downward directly, not repeatedly drain emotions within this range.
He asked, so what do you think about the structure?
I said, very simple, this is the "end of divergence."
The key resistance above is 1920; once it’s effectively broken, it indicates the market is re-entering a strong structure, and the bearish logic ends.
But before that, every rally here is more like giving market participants a choice: go or stay.
So my idea is:
Try to short in batches around 1855–1870, not betting on direction but betting on the continuation of the structure.
Place stops above 1920; if that level is broken, it means the judgment has failed, and you must exit.
Target 1800, first handle the initial pullback by reducing positions and protecting capital, then look at 1760–1720. If the market truly enters a weak phase, more liquidity will be drawn down here.
For BTC, the short position is recommended at 67,500–67,800, with a defensive position above 69,000, aiming first at 66,000 to reduce positions and cover costs, then looking at lower targets.
He asked, isn’t that a bit cautious?
I said, in trading, the real danger isn’t caution but amplifying confidence in uncertain ranges.
Many people think they are "judging the direction," but they’re actually just being fooled by sideways price action into storytelling.
When he finished his coffee and was about to leave, he said:
“You guys seem to always be waiting for the market to tell the truth.”
I looked at the light outside the window and said:
The market doesn’t tell the truth; it just slowly filters out those who are inconsistent. $ETH