Around four in the afternoon, the coffee shop downstairs wasn't crowded, and sunlight was slanting in, looking a bit pale.

A friend who works in foreign trade invited me to sit for a while; he just came back from the factory, still looking a bit tired.

He started by saying that this year's orders are much harder than last year's, but he's still planning to add a production line, saying as long as he holds on, the cycle will eventually return.

He spoke very naturally, with that typical judgment of "just hold on a little longer, and things will get better."

I didn't delve too deeply into this topic, just opened my phone to check the market situation.

ETH was fluctuating around 1800, bouncing back and forth, like being stuck in the middle of a staircase—unable to go up, yet unwilling to come down.

I said, your current decision is very similar to this market pattern.

He looked up at me.

I said, on the surface, it’s "not broken yet," but in essence, it’s "lacking a confirmed direction."

Positions like this are the easiest to misjudge.

Because it’s neither a crash nor a takeoff, but more like a false sense of stability.

Once people stay in this state for a long time, they tend to mistake "nothing happening" for "no problem."

He chuckled and said, are you using the market to talk about reality again?

I said, the market has always been talking about reality; most people just listen to the part they want to hear.

I handed him my phone to show him.

ETH has been tested repeatedly around 1800, but each rally lacks continuity, and trading volume hasn't expanded significantly.

I said, if this is a strong reversal, it shouldn't drag on like this.

A true trend either breaks out decisively upward or releases downward directly; it won't repeatedly drain emotions within this range.

He asked, so what do you think about the structure?

I said, very simple, right now it’s a "discrepancy at the end."

The key resistance above is 1920. Once it is effectively broken, it indicates the market is re-entering a strong structure, and the bearish logic ends.

But before that, every rally here is more like giving market participants a choice: to go or to stay.

So my idea is:

Try shorting in batches around 1855–1870, not betting on direction, but betting on the continuation of the structure.

Set the stop-loss above 1920; if that level is broken, it means the judgment failed, and you must exit.

Target 1800, first handle the initial pullback by reducing positions and protecting capital, then look at 1760–1720. If the market truly enters a weak phase, we’ll see more concentrated liquidity downward.

For BTC, the suggestion is to short in the 67500–67800 range, with a defensive position above 69000, aiming first to reduce at 66000, locking in costs, then looking at lower targets.

He asked, isn’t that a bit cautious?

I said, in trading, the real danger isn’t being cautious, but increasing confidence in uncertain ranges.

Many people think they are "judging the direction," but actually, they are just being deceived by sideways price action into telling stories.

When he finished his coffee and was about to leave, he said:

“You guys seem to always be waiting for the market to tell the truth.”

I looked at the light outside the window and said:

The market doesn’t tell the truth; it just slowly filters out those who are inconsistent. $ETH