#SPCX This hype is really scary. Given the current pace, it's very likely to be pumped to $3 trillion before the index enters the exponential phase. The index will be passively allocated 5.7% of the circulating shares, which immediately pulls out $171 billion in liquidity. Then there's the end-of-month unlock, at least 20%, which will definitely create massive selling pressure. If we assume 20%, that's $600 billion in selling pressure. The U.S. stock market in July is very likely to experience a sharp decline~

The core contradiction of SPCX is not the total market cap of $2.5 trillion, but the extremely small actual circulating supply. At listing, only about 556 million shares were circulating, accounting for about 4.3% of the total shares. The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to confirm inclusion on June 26 and take effect on July 6. Passive funds are buying nearly 10% of the current circulating supply, creating a resonance of "circulating scarcity + index inclusion + delayed selling pressure." Therefore, early July still remains a relatively safe trading window. But it should be noted that from late July to early August, after Q2 earnings reports, the first large-scale unlock will occur. The basic unlock is 20%, and if the stock price meets certain conditions, an additional 10% will be unlocked. Since the original circulating supply is only 4.3%, the available circulating chips could jump directly from 4.3% to over 30%, with circulating supply expanding nearly 8 times. So in the short term, demand shocks dominate; in the medium term, it will shift to a battle between earnings validation and unlock supply shocks. #$SPCX