Dark Horse Alert—On tomorrow’s Super Match Day, who is most likely to have a letdown?

France vs Senegal, Iraq vs Norway, Argentina vs Algeria, Austria vs Jordan—where exactly are the hidden traps for the stronger teams to stumble in these four matches tomorrow?

Senegal’s biggest confidence against France comes from the psychological edge of their 2002 encounter. Before the match, Senegal faced off-field disruptions such as flight delays and disputes over the head coach’s contract, but African teams often end up more united amid this kind of chaos. Although France is far stronger, their slow start in the first round is a longstanding issue for this team—if they can’t break the deadlock within the first 30 minutes, Senegal will grow more and more confident as they defend. The risk of a draw is definitely there.

For Iraq vs Norway, the biggest upset factor is this: Iraq once held Spain to a draw in a warm-up match. While Spain clearly didn’t go all out in that game, facing Norway gives Iraq the chance to replicate the same dense defensive approach “as is.” If Norway can’t adapt to the game’s tempo and keeps struggling to open things up, Iraq—known for their gritty determination—absolutely has what it takes to hold the score.

The danger in Argentina vs Algeria lies in Argentina’s back line. Both of their key defenders, Tagliafico and Balerdi, are unavailable, forcing Scaloni to field a makeshift temporary defense. Algeria’s warm-up results—beating the Netherlands and then hammering Bolivia in a big win—are extremely solid, and they are absolutely not a weak side you can just pick apart.

In Austria vs Jordan, the upset probability is the lowest. Rangnick’s tactical system and the defense line led by Alaba are both very mature; with defensive data of only 5 goals conceded in the World Cup qualifiers, Austria is at the top level among the top four teams.

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